A Long Way From Economic Normalcy

Posted by Matt in March 13th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Economy, Aftermath, Balance Sheets, Banks, China, Consumers, Debt Crisis, Developing Economies, Economy, Europe, Fiscal Stimulus, Fourth Quarter, Greece, Inventory Replenishment, National Journal Magazine, Normalcy, Overhang, Property Values, Signs, Sovereign Debt, Spurt

The economy grew 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, but the number is not as strong as it looks. Most of it is based on temporary factors, notably a spurt of inventory replenishment and the now-waning fiscal stimulus. An overhang of debt and low property values continues to weigh down banks’ and consumers’ [...]

Economy ‘Far too Close’ to Double Dip: Roubini

Posted by Matt in March 10th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Economy, Financial, Challenges, Debt Crisis, Double Dip Recession, Economy, Europe, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, Measures, News Headlines, Poor Economic Data, Research Paper, Risk, Roubini, Second Half, Tipping Point

Poor economic data in the US coupled with Europe’s debt crisis are contributing to an increase of the risk of the US economy going through a double-dip recession, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2007 financial crisis, wrote in a research paper.
At best, the US economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery this year, Roubini said. [...]

Meltzer: New Financial Crisis Coming

Posted by Matt in October 28th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Financial, Budget Deficits, Carnegie Mellon, Currency, Financial Crisis, Fiscal Stimulus, Global Financial Crisis, Mellon Professor, Meltzer, Money Growth, United States, Wall Street, Wall Street Journal

“The United States is headed toward a new financial crisis,” he writes in The Wall Street Journal.
It’s the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus that could do us in, says the Carnegie Mellon professor.

“History gives many examples of countries with high actual and expected money growth, unsustainable budget deficits, and a currency expected to [...]

The New Mercantilism

Posted by Matt in June 9th, 2009 | no comment

Published in China, Economy, American Exports, Argentina, Brazil, Distortions, Emerging Market Economies, European Union, Export Subsidies, Fiscal Stimulus, Government Procurement, India, Indonesia, International Trade, Licensing Requirements, Mercantilism, Mexican Trucks, New Mercantilism, Pledge, Retaliation, Russia, summit, Tariffs

The “new mercantilism” takes many forms. Despite their pledge at the first G-20 summit last fall, most of its members have erected new distortions to international trade. A number of major emerging-market economies (including Brazil, India and Russia) have raised tariffs. Argentina and Indonesia have imposed new licensing requirements on imports. The European Union and [...]

Long-Term Outlook: Slow Growth And Deflation

Posted by Matt in March 16th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Binges, Emerging Market, Federal Tax Rebates, Financial Assets, Fiscal Stimulus, Foreign Currencies, Fundamental Measure, Gary Shilling, Growth Spurt, Growth Trend, Hedge Funds, Investment Climate, Investment Vehicles, Market Collapse, Private Equity Investors, Real Gdp, Speculative Investment, Target Rate, Term Outlook, World Of Goods

(excerpted from the March 2009 edition of A. Gary Shilling’s INSIGHT)
From 1982 until 2000, the U.S. economy enjoyed rapid growth with real GDP rising at a 3.6% average annual rate. Furthermore, this 18-year expansion, which cumulated to an 89% rise in inflation-adjusted economic activity, was interrupted by only one recession, the relatively mild 1990-1991 downturn, [...]