The End of Influence | Foreign Policy

Posted by Matt in December 24th, 2009 | no comment

Published in U.S., Brad Delong, Forecasters, Foreign Policy, Foreigners, Money, Stephen Cohen, United States

For as long as many can remember, the United States has been the country with money, influence, and power. But all that is changing, write Brad DeLong and Stephen Cohen in their new book, The End of Influence.
…
But the United States is losing the money. America is now massively in debt to foreigners and will [...]

Everything You Know About China Is Wrong | Newsweek

Posted by Matt in October 19th, 2009 | no comment

Published in China, Asian Contagion, Assumptions, beijing, Boom, China Economy, Conventional Wisdom, Driven Growth, Economic Management, Financial Crisis, Financial Storms, Forecasters, Generations, Global Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, Helmsmanship, Momentum, Myths, Newsweek, Private Sector, Recession, Supertanker

The conventional wisdom is that China is steaming through the global financial crisis by building on the momentum generated by its 30-year boom. Indeed, ever since it sailed through the last big global crisis—the Asian contagion 10 years ago—Beijing has been feted for uniquely steady helmsmanship in financial storms. So perhaps it’s natural for forecasters [...]

Cat 5 Hurricane Rick threatens Mexico resort city – Yahoo! News

Posted by Matt in October 18th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Mexico, Baja California Peninsula, Cat 5 Hurricane, Category 5 Hurricane, Decade, Fishermen, Forecasters, Hurricane Rick, Los Cabos, Major Sport, Mexico City, Mexico News, Mexico Resort, Mexico Yahoo, Midweek, Open Seas, Pacific Storm, Sport Fishing, Yahoo, Yahoo News

Hurricane Rick, the strongest eastern North Pacific storm in more than a decade, weakened slightly over open seas Sunday as forecasters said it could veer into resorts at the tip of the Baja California Peninsula by midweek.
The track of the Category 5 hurricane threatened to disrupt a major sport fishing tournament scheduled to start Wednesday [...]

Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? – TIME

Posted by Matt in July 17th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, 10 Years, Assumptions, Blogged, Budget Projections, Difficult Period, Economists, Economy, Flock Browser, Forecasters, George Washington, George Washington University, Harvard Economist, James Stock, Massive Changes, Models, Public Policy, Recessions

The problem is twofold. First, it’s hard to predict the future. Second, it’s really hard to predict the future when so many parts of the economy are in flux. “This has been an extraordinarily difficult period for forecasters,” says Harvard economist James Stock. “Our models aren’t really designed for predicting massive changes.” Philip Joyce, a [...]

El Nino conditions return to affect weather

Posted by Matt in July 9th, 2009 | no comment

Published in general, Array, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, El Nino, Fahrenheit, Forecasters, Government Scientists, National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration, Neutral State, Sea Surface Temperature, Tropical Pacific Ocean, weasther, Weather Around The World

Government scientists said Thursday that the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather around the world, has returned.
The Pacific had been in what is called a neutral state, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the sea surface temperature climbed to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal [...]