What are those dire scenarios? The report gives a list of eight “Black Swan” scenarios — a reference to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “Black Swan,” which posits that history is built on unforeseeable, surprise events.
Global Trends 2030′s potential Black Swans
1. Severe Pandemic
A report by the National Intelligence Council predicts that the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, but that no country — including China — will be a hegemonic power.
Instead, the report says, power will shift to “networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.”
The council, which wrote [...]
Haunted by these and other shortcomings, the U.S. intelligence community is now engaged in long-term comprehensive research projects such as Global Trends 2030, a large strategic forecasting report the National Intelligence Council will release later this year. Global Trends 2025, released in November 2008, described long-term [...]
The murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand is credited with sparking the war, though a battle was inevitable. In Part 1 of our series on WWI, http://www.WatchMojo.com explores how and why the First World War began.
Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term is just beginning, but it increasingly looks like the beginning of the end. Whenever Russia’s people pour into the streets en masse, as they currently are doing, from that point on things never work out well for the authorities.
In 1917, Russian Emperor Nicholas II had to abdicate in the [...]
The turmoil in the Middle East are quite logical. The reason is that the Arab world lags behind the global trends in social and political structure. Today, individual states are no longer able to resist the international oligarchy and transnational community. Therefore, they are united in the ethno-cultural civilizations, such as Europe, Latin America, China [...]
Global Trends 2025, a new report written by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) ahead of President-elect Barack Obama’s inauguration, envisages a future world marked by diminished US power, dwindling resources, and more people.
The current trend of global wealth and economic power shifting roughly from West to East, described as “without precedent in [...]
[Updated March 19, 2012] Nuclear warfare in or around 2012 is very possible given, well, the threats of nuclear war (atomic war) coming out of Russia and China concerning Iran. Let’s look at what they have to say.
Attacking Iran: Putin Says Consequences Would be ‘Truly Catastrophic’ with Unimaginable Scale
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said [...]