There is an odd quiet globally. The Middle East is seeing tension easing across the board. Tensions between Russia and the Czechs or Georgians have mounted, but nothing like they could have. The Chinese are tense but managing the run-up to the Olympics and the oil price rise as well as can be expected. Nothing [...]
1913 Intel
International Conflict, Western World Threats and Geopolitical Intelligence
Stratfor Intelligence Guidance: Week of July 13, 2008
Posted by Matt in July 11th, 2008 | no comment
Published in general, Crises, Czechs, Disruptions, Georgians, Guidance, Intelligence, Middle East, Oil Price Rise, Olympics, Periods, Russia, Seams, Tension, Tensions
Hizbullah’s power play
Posted by Matt in June 5th, 2008 | 1 comment
Published in Middle East, War, algeria, Civil War, Company Commander, Concise Description, David Galula, Fatah, Fln, French Experience, French Marines, Guidance, Hamas, hezbollah, Hizbullah, Indochina, Insurgency In Iraq, Lebanon, Lieutenant Colonel, Power Play, Revolutionary Movements, Revolutionary Theory, Theory And Practice
Understanding why Hizbullah refused to take over Lebanon is key not only for understanding Hizbullah but also for understanding Hamas, Fatah and the insurgency in Iraq.
A compelling answer to this question is found in David Galula’s classic work, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. Galula, who died in 1967, was a lieutenant colonel in the French [...]
Stratfor Intelligence Guidance: Week of June 1, 2008
Posted by Matt in May 30th, 2008 | no comment
Published in Asia, Energy, Anecdotal Reports, Asia, Business Environment, Business Failure, Earthquake Relief, Energy Prices, Environment China, Free Access, Google, Guidance, inflation, Intelligence, Plant Closures, Possibilities, Social Unrest, South-Korea, Unemployment
Asia in general, and China in particular: The pressure in Asia is starting to show, beginning with South Korea. But anecdotal reports out of China also show the ratcheting of pressure. We have reports of plant closures due partly to informal taxes for earthquake relief imposed by the government and partly to the business environment. [...]
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