India’s economic model has essentially failed. Talk of matching East Asia’s growth rates has been exposed as wishful thinking. Superpower dreams are giving way to the same old reality of poverty, depleted ground water and graft.
We can now see that growth averaging 8.2pc from 2004 to 2012 was an anomaly, kept alive by fiscal largesse at the top of the cycle. A torrid global boom masked all sins, itself the result of negative real interest rates in the West, the yen carry trade from Japan, China’s reserve accumulation and ultimately a flood of dollar liquidity that leaked everywhere from the US Federal Reserve.Sponsored Ads
The Agni-V and Arihant are designed to give India first-strike capability against China. With a range of 5,000 kilometers, the Agni-V is designed to be able to strike Beijing and other major cities in northeastern China. To reach major coastal cities in eastern and southern China such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, the shorter-range K-15 Sagarika submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of 700-750 kilometers and capable of carrying a 1-tonne warhead, can be launched from the Arihant.
In the event of open hostilities, the PLA could deploy its submarines near the Indian naval bases which are potential home ports for the Arihant or its sister ships according to the website of People’s Daily.
Making strong comments before Antony’s arrival, Major General Luo Yuan warned India that it should be careful with words and deeds. “India should be very cautious in what it does…in what it says,” Lou said, adding that India was the only country in the world that was enhancing its military prowess citing China as a threat perception.
Lou repeatedly indicated that the onus was on India to maintain peace along the border between the two neighbours.
“Particularly, the Indian side should not provoke new problems and increase military deployment at the border areas and stir up new problems,” Lou said.
A pattern can be deciphered: Gradually trespass into an area of interest over a period of time and set a routine that evades notice and serious attention thus avoiding any significant protest or challenge. Down play protests or apprehensions if any. Exploit unchallenged border encroachments as an opportunity to consolidate position and stake a claim to the area at an appropriate moment through precipitous military coercion and intimidation. On close evaluation this pattern can be discerned in the construction of dams across Brahmaputra.
RealClearWorld – The India vs. China Border Standoff: Lessons Learned
China is subverting the status quo in the South and East China Seas, on its border with India, and even concerning international riparian flows – all without firing a single shot. Just as it grabbed land across the Himalayas in the 1950’s by launching furtive encroachments, China is waging stealth wars against its Asian neighbors that threaten to destabilize the entire region. The more economic power China has amassed, the greater its ambition to alter the territorial status quo has become.
The first and overriding point of view was that the era when the United States has been the ultimate superpower in the world was coming to an end. They all believed that a multipower world, with large roles for the U.S., Russia, China and India, was what would arise as the 21st century neared its midpoint. And that development did not seem to be a major concern to any of them.
In terms of America’s relations with the other three countries, the students believed that the most difficult country for the United States is China. China, they noted, has become increasingly more aggressive in the South China Sea, continues to pursue natural resources such as oil and natural gas to sustain its economic growth, and has developed a major presence all over the world.
Warning that both countries may see far more serious incidents than the stand-off at Depsang Valley pending a long-term solution, a Chinese government think tank today said that such problems in future would be more difficult to resolve due to the pressure mounted by opposition parties and media in India.
“Pending the suspense of a long term solution (to the boundary issue), we cannot say that there will not be periodic outbreaks of similar incidents, which may be even be more serious” said the first detailed write up on the stand off at Daulat Beig Oldi (DBO) in Ladakh area in the Chinese media.
“It might have been caused by the new leadership’s assertive stance on issues of national interest. President Xi has publicly urged the army to spare no efforts to defend China’s territorial integrity and core interests,” he says. “Such high-profile political signals would only encourage the army, especially frontier forces, to toughen their own stance in local disputes.”
Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also believes the PLA has upped the stakes. “This one dramatically changes the status quo as the Chinese appear to have physically occupied new territory under Indian control,” he says, pointing out the Chinese picked an area where India has been attempting to ramp up defences.
Several dozen Chinese soldiers have set up a remote camp some 10 km (6 miles) inside territory claimed by India in the high altitude Himalayan desert of Ladakh, Indian police sources said, in a possible return to border tension between the Asian giants.
An Indian foreign ministry spokesman said the two countries were in touch with each other to resolve the row. The ill-defined border has fuelled 50 years of mistrust despite blossoming economic ties.
The risk stems from something more fundamental: The globalization model of the past 30 years is cracking up. And there appears to be no new model to replace it.
Since April, an ugly economic world has turned uglier. The annual growth rate of total global exports has collapsed. Exports were a crucial engine in powering the U.S. economy out of the worst of the recession in the second half of 2009 and remain important for growth.
Lately, even China and India, which were thought able to decouple from the weakness of the industrialized world, have fallen victim to the seizing up of global trade….