Warning that both countries may see far more serious incidents than the stand-off at Depsang Valley pending a long-term solution, a Chinese government think tank today said that such problems in future would be more difficult to resolve due to the pressure mounted by opposition parties and media in India.
“Pending the suspense of a long term solution (to the boundary issue), we cannot say that there will not be periodic outbreaks of similar incidents, which may be even be more serious” said the first detailed write up on the stand off at Daulat Beig Oldi (DBO) in Ladakh area in the Chinese media.
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“It might have been caused by the new leadership’s assertive stance on issues of national interest. President Xi has publicly urged the army to spare no efforts to defend China’s territorial integrity and core interests,” he says. “Such high-profile political signals would only encourage the army, especially frontier forces, to toughen their own stance in local disputes.”
Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, also believes the PLA has upped the stakes. “This one dramatically changes the status quo as the Chinese appear to have physically occupied new territory under Indian control,” he says, pointing out the Chinese picked an area where India has been attempting to ramp up defences.
In the way China made land grabs across the Himalayas in the 1950s by launching furtive encroachments, it is now waging stealth wars — without firing a single shot — to change the status quo in the South and East China seas, on the line of control with India, and on international-river flows.
Although China has risen from a poor state to a global economic powerhouse, the key elements in its statecraft and strategic doctrine have not changed.
Since the Mao Zedong era, China has adhered to ancient theorist Sun Tzu’s advice: “The ability to subdue the enemy without any battle is the ultimate reflection of the most supreme strategy.”
Several dozen Chinese soldiers have set up a remote camp some 10 km (6 miles) inside territory claimed by India in the high altitude Himalayan desert of Ladakh, Indian police sources said, in a possible return to border tension between the Asian giants.
An Indian foreign ministry spokesman said the two countries were in touch with each other to resolve the row. The ill-defined border has fuelled 50 years of mistrust despite blossoming economic ties.
The risk stems from something more fundamental: The globalization model of the past 30 years is cracking up. And there appears to be no new model to replace it.
Since April, an ugly economic world has turned uglier. The annual growth rate of total global exports has collapsed. Exports were a crucial engine in powering the U.S. economy out of the worst of the recession in the second half of 2009 and remain important for growth.
Lately, even China and India, which were thought able to decouple from the weakness of the industrialized world, have fallen victim to the seizing up of global trade….
In June 2011, Chinese military general Luo Yuan said, “If we consider our neighbors, India will have three aircraft carriers by 2014 and Japan will have three carriers by 2014.” Although some may call China’s new aircraft carrier a new era in naval history, with its ever increasing economic strength and its global role in the international community, the implications of its increasing naval power is yet to be seen considering other countries surrounding China also are rapidly developing aircraft carriers and the debate over the disputed islands is far from over.
To get a feel for China’s aspirations in the near future, General Yuan went on to say, “So I think the number (for China) should not be less than three [aircraft carriers] so we can defend our rights and our maritime interests effectively.”
Brazil, Russia, India and China are booming whilst many other countries are struggling economically, or even crashing. When their leaders recently convened in Brasilia for their second BRIC summit, they all underlined their commitment to a more democratic global governance. Will the emerging powers change the way the world works, or merely grab a bigger share of it? And what future for Brazil on the world’s summit?
[Published on April 29, 2010.]
The Big Picture BRICS Summit: Is a new world order emerging? [Published on march 31, 2012]
This “balance of terror” has not existed again since the end of the Cold War, says Reinhard Meier-Walser, honorary professor for international politics at the University of Regensburg.
“Today, we have the problem of horizontal proliferation,” Meier-Walser told DW. “This means that the major nuclear powers are disarming, but new nuclear powers are coming into play and we don’t know if they can definitely be deterred.” In addition to the “official” nuclear powers US, Russia, Britain, France and China, not only Israel and India, but also the politically unstable Pakistan and the autocratic North Korea have “the bomb.”
Although differences remain, an increasingly powerful and assertive China is pushing New Delhi and Washington closer together.
The possibility of a looming new cold war was on most attendees’ minds at the recent Asia-Pacific Roundtable on Asian Security Governance and Order in Kuala Lumpur. Hanging over the meeting was the reality of an increasingly influential and assertive China, and the anxiety this has created in the United States.
… Other Chinese scholars openly admitted that confrontation with the U.S. was inevitable, as the U.S. rebalance towards Asia was aimed squarely at China and posed a direct threat to it, …
The South China Sea: Troubled Waters [Published on Sept. 17, 2010]