The source said the assessments that Assad has changed the course of the civil war are groundless.
“Those claims reflect a lack of historic understanding,” he said. “The era of a united Syria under Assad’s rule is over. What remains is two million Alawites who can hold onto the Damascus area and the Alawite region in the northwest of Syria in the meantime. They cannot rule the rest of the communities and regions in the country anymore. That’s over,” he said.
“The problem of the opposition organizations is that they too are divided into more than 100 groups and factions. From Israel’s point of view, this mutual paralysis is not necessarily that bad, because the stronger rebel factions are radical Muslim organizations whose rule in Syria could be worse even than the current state of affairs,” the source said.
Israel disputes Western view that Syrian civil war has swung Assad’s way – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper
If there is a mutual paralysis preventing either side from winning, then where do we go from here? Paralysis is a loss from Iran’s standpoint. It represents a loss of power and influence. So it is not ideal to remain in this state for a long time. One potential way to break this deadlock is to drag in Israel. Then all Muslims will unite against Israel. Beating up Israel and recovering the Golan Heights could be a winning hand for Iran and Assad. It could also blow up if Israel decides to become extremely aggressive.
If one side has nuclear weapons and the other doesn’t, then it’s not a good idea to bet against the side with nuclear weapons. If all else fails, Israel can just obliterate everyone in its path.
It appears at this point we may be reaching an endgame with the Syrian war. While this is by no means certain, one should not be shocked to see a massive escalation by dragging in Israel. This is especially true given how easy it would be to include Israel. All Syria has to do is attempt to transfer game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Then it can sit back and wait for Israel to respond. Once Israel responds then any subsequent Muslim retaliation on Israel can be blamed on Israel.