An appearance of peace has returned to Lebanon; but as Hezbollah grows in power, political tensions are becoming palpable. Has the country finally entered a long-term settlement, or are we witnessing the preliminaries to a new conflict?
Thanks to massive financial and military backing from Iran and Syria, Hezbollah has emerged as a powerhouse over [...]

read more....

In itself, Iran’s recent application for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is probably little more than diplomatic posturing. But coupled with the end of Lebanon’s political stalemate, Turkey’s mediation between Israel and Syria, and Egypt’s attempts to broker a truce in Gaza, it can be seen as part of a new dynamic that [...]

read more....

Understanding why Hizbullah refused to take over Lebanon is key not only for understanding Hizbullah but also for understanding Hamas, Fatah and the insurgency in Iraq.
A compelling answer to this question is found in David Galula’s classic work, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. Galula, who died in 1967, was a lieutenant colonel in the French [...]

read more....

Editor’s Note: This week’s Terrorism Weekly is the second chapter of Fred Burton’s new book, GHOST: Confessions of a Counterterrorism Agent. Burton is vice president for counterterrorism and corporate security at Stratfor. He is the former deputy chief of the counterterrorism division of the U.S. State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service.
Chapter Two: Down the Rabbit Hole
“CT03.” [...]

read more....

For their part, Hezbollah’s leaders remain coy on specifics, but have not disputed the characterization that their capabilities are greater than prewar levels. In mid-2007, Nasrallah said his militia has missiles “able to hit every point in occupied Palestine.” Still, finding independent sources on Hezbollah has proven difficult. Western military assessments tend to agree that [...]

read more....

A new civil war has been averted in Lebanon, and Israel and Syria are back at the negotiating table. But Hezbollah is stronger than ever, and its arsenal is brimming with weapons — partly because the United Nations monitoring program has failed. By Daniel Steinvorth and Alexander Szandar more…

Possible Prisoner Exchange: Deal Imminent between Israel [...]

read more....

srael and Hezbollah are once again close to a deal that would bring two kidnapped Israeli soldiers back home. Details of the agreement, negotiated by a German middleman, indicate that the two might not still be alive. By Ulrike Putz in Beirut more…

Syrian-Israeli Negotiations: Olmert’s Deft Golan Deal
SPIEGEL ONLINE Interview with Lebanese Minister Nayla Moawad: [...]

read more....

Damascus continues to strengthen Hizbullah, and “plays a significant role in transferring weapons to the south of Lebanon,” Head of Military Intelligence research division Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz told the Knesset on Monday.
He added that “at the same time as negotiating with Israel, Syria is working diligently on its own army, especially in terms of missiles [...]

read more....

“If you have tears, prepare to shed them now….
Oh, what a fall was there…
Then I, and you, and all of us fell down.”
–William Shakespeare, “Julius Caesar,” Act 3, Scene 1.
May 21, 2008, is a date–like December 7 (1941) and September 11 (2001)–that should now live in infamy. Yet who will notice, mourn, or act the [...]

read more....

Lebanon’s factions appear to have halted a nascent civil war — at least temporarily — with an agreement struck Wednesday in Qatar between the Western-backed government of Fouad Siniora and the Syrian-backed Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah. But the peace deal cannot fairly be called a compromise. Hezbollah won That’s the result of its stunning military [...]

read more....

Unfortunately for the Lebanese, their leaders are almost certainly coming back soon, and probably without a workable agreement. That’s because 18 months into the stalemate between the U.S. and Saudi-backed government on the one hand and the Syrian- and Iranian-supported opposition on the other, the differences between the two camps appear to be irreconcilable for [...]

read more....

By George Friedman
In geopolitics, we are frequently confronted with what appears to be a great deal of movement. Sometimes it is the current geopolitical reality breaking apart and a new one emerging. Sometimes it is simply meaningless motion in a fixed geopolitical reality — nothing more than the illusion of movement generated for political reasons [...]

read more....

Russia is one of the least peaceful places in the world, according to a new study, which ranks it among countries mired in drug trafficking, guerilla wars and political instability.
Russia took 131st place out of 140 countries on the Global Peace Index, just below Colombia and above Lebanon, says the study, released late Monday. Iceland [...]

read more....

Whether Lebanon veered close to “civil war” this month—a question broached by many newspapers—seems purely academic at this point, and perhaps irrelevant. Beirut settled into a tenuous calm after Lebanon’s cabinet conceded (CNN) the immediate demands of Hezbollah, but the upheaval resolved none of the many issues destabilizing the country. Lebanon’s paralyzed government, Beirut’s inability [...]

read more....

The U.S. Navy has positioned its advanced communications flagship off the coast of Lebanon ahead of a larger mission, an intelligence report says.
U.S. Navy spokesman Lt. Patrick Foughty said the the USS Mount Whitney, a 620-foot command and control flagship for the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet, is in the region “to support additional communications requirements [...]

read more....

But by the next morning, the battle for Beirut was mostly over. After just six hours of all-out fighting, Hizballah militants were in control of areas of West Beirut that had previously been the government’s preserve. This made for some incongruous scenes. Bearded men with rifles and rocket launchers secured lingerie shops and a Starbucks [...]

read more....

The Bush administration accused Iran and Syria on Friday of fueling ongoing violence in Lebanon by inciting members of the radical Shiite Hezbollah movement to take up arms against the country’s western-backed government.
As Hezbollah militants seized control of large parts of Beirut, the administration denounced the show of force, which it said was being supported [...]

read more....

Thursday’s gun battles broke out only minutes after the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, appeared on TV to accuse the Lebanese government of declaring war on his movement, whose raison d’etre is to resist Israel.
He said the only way out of the current crisis was for the government to rescind the decisions it took on Monday [...]

read more....

The rattle of gunfire and crump of exploding rockets that shook the near-deserted streets of Beirut Wednesday seemed to signal the arrival of the long-feared showdown between the Western-backed government and its opponents led by Hizballah. Thick plumes of black smoke from barricades of burning tyres cast a deep pall over the capital, as many [...]

read more....

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Supporters of the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah, trying to enforce a general strike called by labor unions, clashed with government supporters and blocked roads in Beirut on Wednesday, escalating tensions as the country remained mired in its worst political crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
…
The government said on Tuesday that it would act [...]

read more....

A couple of years ago Hizbullah and Israel went to war with each other. The result was that the Shi’ite terrorist organization was severely weakened and had lost many of its fighters. Aside from that, though, the organization had also proved that it could fight back against Israel and that Olmer is a weak leader; [...]

read more....