China’s military preparedness and strategic deployment of weaponry take into consideration a whole range of potential enemies, an analysis of internal People’s Liberation Army documents has revealed.
In order of importance – that is, the likelihood of actual military engagement – those enemies are Taiwan, the United States and Japan (as potential defenders of Taiwan), India, [...]

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Since the late 1990s, there has been a flood of research on natural resources and civil war. This article reviews 14 recent cross-national econometric studies, and many qualitative studies, that cast light on the relationship between natural resources and civil war. It suggests that collectively they imply four underlying regularities: first, oil increases the likelihood [...]

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After 2012-2015, the U.S. will be able to annihilate Russian strategic nuclear forces by a non-nuclear preemptive strike, said Konstantin Sivkov, the first vice president of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems.
“I declare that the likelihood of a military threat is great as never before now,” Sivkov told Interfax on Saturday.
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That would be consistent with a recently published report by Merrill Lynch Chief Economist David Rosenberg suggesting a 100% probability of a recession. Reading from his latest writing:
“We recently unveiled a new recession probability indicator that uses the shape of the yield curve (10-year note/3-month LIBOR) and corporate spreads (Baa) to predict the probability of [...]

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