Is this Israel’s calm before the storm? – The Globe and Mail

Posted by Matt in February 6th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Israel, assad, Avigdor Lieberman, Calm Before The Storm, Clashes, Deadlock, Flare, Globe And Mail, Globe Mail, Intelligence Assessment, Intifada, Israeli Cities, Israeli Foreign Minister, Likelihood, Neighbors, Nuclear War, Observers, Palestinians, Probability, Sabre Rattling, Syrian Officials

2010 might be calm, but 2011 won’t. I anticipate that 2011 will bring nuclear war to the Middle East as Israel’s neighbors launch a preemptive attack to destroy Israel once and for all.
There might be a Third Intifada with the Palestinians, but it’s hard to know when this could occur. It could be 2010 or [...]

Exclusive: Real Arms Control | Family Security Matters

Posted by Matt in January 22nd, 2010 | no comment

Published in Nuclear, Arms Control, ArmsControl, Bombers, Control, Delivery Platforms, Family Matters, Family Security, Force Control, Likelihood, Missiles, Nuclear Force, Nuclear Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Robustness, Russia, submarines

However, the op-ed is faulty on a number of serious nuclear policy matters, four of which deserve consideration:
(1) The reductions in deployed nuclear weapons to 1,500-1,675, as are being contemplated in a new treaty between the U.S. and Russia, are welcome but largely beside the point;

(2) The implied parallel reductions in nuclear capable delivery [...]

The Case Against President Obama’s Arms Control Policy | The Foundry: Conservative Policy News.

Posted by Matt in January 14th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Nuclear, Arms Control, Circumstances, Conservative News, Conservative Policy, Foundry, Hartung, Likelihood, Nuclear Weapons, Obama, Policy News

Now, let’s turn to the specific charges. First and foremost, Mr. Hartung asserts that “the fewer nuclear weapons there are, the safer we all will be.” This is just not so. Pursuing numerical reductions in a haphazard way, particularly to very low numbers, can lead to circumstances that increase instability and increase the likelihood of [...]

Top Risk No. 6: Climate Change | The Call

Posted by Matt in January 13th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Geopolitical, China, climate change, Copenhagen, Global Treaty, India, Likelihood, Presumption, Risk, United States

Before Copenhagen, the prevailing presumption was that 2010 would be the year when a global treaty, including the United States, China and India, really got done. After Copenhagen, we look years away from such a treaty, and there is a growing likelihood that it will never happen.
Top Risk No. 6: Climate Change | The Call

Preparing for a ‘nuclear event’ – LA Daily News

Posted by Matt in December 14th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Shelters, Bomb, Consequences, County Public Health, Daily News, Director Jonathan, Emergency Plans, Fallout Shelters, Jonathan, Likelihood, Metropolitan Areas, Nuclear Attack, Nuclear Event, Public Health Director, Taking Inventory

Local officials taking inventory of bomb and fallout shelters

While the possibility of a nuclear attack in Los Angeles seems almost unthinkable, local officials are inventorying hundreds of old bomb and fallout shelters as part of their preparations for a “radiological or nuclear event.”
Los Angeles and other metropolitan areas are drafting emergency plans while federal [...]

Should you be thinking about potassium iodide tablets?

Posted by Matt in September 11th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Nuclear, 2012, Amazon, Chemical Bombs, Chemical Weapons, Critical Juncture, Fallout, Fissionable Material, Hamas, hezbollah, iranians, Israeli Cities, Likelihood, Nuclear Bombs, Nuclear Capability, Potassium Iodide, Potassium Iodide Tablets, Radioactive Iodine, Syria Lebanon, Thyroid, Thyroid Gland, Western Intelligence Services

ANALYSIS / Clock is ticking for Iran as Israel appears ready for strike
This month will mark a critical juncture in Iran’s race for nuclear capability. The timetable is getting ever shorter: Most Western intelligence services share the assessment that over the course of 2010, Iran will accumulate sufficient fissionable material to produce two or [...]

Russia-Georgia: Signs Could Point To New War

Posted by Matt in February 21st, 2009 | no comment

Published in Conflict, Russia, War, Armed Conflict, Cease Fire, Clashes, Fire Line, Fire Regime, Geneva, Georgia, Georgian Service, Likelihood, Military Analyst, New War, Pavel Felgenhauer, Rfe Rl, Russia, Signs

Speaking with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service ahead of the Geneva talks, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said the situation along the cease-fire line in Georgia remained extremely volatile and warned another war was “very likely.”
“[As long as] the cease-fire regime stays as it is, provocations, or what both sides understand as provocations — clashes, exchanges of [...]

China’s prime potential enemies

Posted by Matt in October 25th, 2008 | no comment

Published in China, Army Documents, China Military, China S Military, Deployment, Enemies, India, Japan, Likelihood, Military Engagement, Military Preparedness, NATO, People S Liberation Army, Russia, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, United States, Vietnam, Weaponry

China’s military preparedness and strategic deployment of weaponry take into consideration a whole range of potential enemies, an analysis of internal People’s Liberation Army documents has revealed.
In order of importance – that is, the likelihood of actual military engagement – those enemies are Taiwan, the United States and Japan (as potential defenders of Taiwan), India, [...]

What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?

Posted by Matt in May 30th, 2008 | no comment

Published in Conflict, Oil, 1990s, Agricultural Commodities, Agricultural Goods, Civil War, Civil Wars, Conflicts, Drugs, Econometric Studies, Flood, Gemstones, Grievances, Havoc, Inconsistencies, Insurgents, Likelihood, Missing Data, Natural Resources, Oil Wealth, Qualitative Studies, Relationship, Rich Countries, Separatist Conflict, Theoretical Arguments

Since the late 1990s, there has been a flood of research on natural resources and civil war. This article reviews 14 recent cross-national econometric studies, and many qualitative studies, that cast light on the relationship between natural resources and civil war. It suggests that collectively they imply four underlying regularities: first, oil increases the likelihood [...]