Tag Archives: Military Planners

Commentary: The End of the U.S. Military’s Tech Edge? | The National Interest

… As a result, the next decade is likely to be the most disruptive since the early 1980s, when military planners in the Soviet Union began to worry openly about a “military-technical revolution” emerging in the United States.

These technologies could alter the strategic nature of military competition—and even the conduct of war itself—in a number of ways. Game-changing technologies could alter the relationship between the offensive and defensive dimensions of conflict. In particular, directed-energy weapons could make it much easier to defend against today’s precision-guided munitions by allowing defensive systems to accurately “fire” numerous times at an incoming target—helping to obviate any quantitative advantage an attacker might have. This could potentially negate a missile-saturation strategy and thus greatly alter the perceived balance of military power in several competitive theaters including the Asia-Pacific region.

Commentary: The End of the U.S. Military’s Tech Edge? | The National Interest

If Syria Collapses, What Then? Four Bad Case Scenarios – The Atlantic Wire

“The disintegration is not abstract; it is real,” said Israel’s defense minister Ehud Barak on Thursday. Here are the threats military leaders are planning for:

A Civil War in Lebanon  Many countries in the region are concerned that the collapse of Syria could result in a civil war in neighboring Lebanon. …

Chemical Weapons Unleashed One of the primary fears of Israel’s military planners is Syria’s large stockpile of chemical weapons getting in the hands of radical groups that hate Israel, reports The New York Times Jodi Rudoren. …

Assad Fires on Rebels with Scud Missiles Danger Rooms’ David Axe looks into the likelihood that Assad would use his significant stockpile of ballistic missiles against his own people. …

An International Peace Force May Be Needed  There’s also the distinct possibility that a successor group to Assad’s regime could be highly unsavory or spark infighting across a number of countries, as Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer, writes for the Daily Beast. …

If Syria Collapses, What Then? Four Bad Case Scenarios – Global – The Atlantic Wire

China’s Impenetrable Underground Bunkers – Business Insider

Aerial bombardments weighed heavy on the minds of Chinese military planners in the taut decades of the Cold War, and protecting their fledgling jet fleet was of paramount importance.

To keep their planes and equipment from the prying eyes of satellites, and the earth shattering bombs of an aerial attack, China built an elaborate set of underground bunkers.

Sean O’Connor and Dr. Carlo Kopp from Air Power Australia published a monograph on China’s underground air bases, and what it would take to bring them down may surprise you.

China’s Impenetrable Underground Bunkers – Business Insider

Israelis Grow Confident Strike on Iran’s Nukes Can Work – Bloomberg

Finally, and even more disquieting, was the contention I heard repeatedly that an Israeli strike in the next six months — conducted before Iran can further harden its nuclear sites, or make them redundant — will set back the ayatollahs’ atomic ambitions at least five years. American military planners tend to think that Israel could do only a year or two worth of damage.

The arguments I’ve outlined here — and those I’ll describe in my next column — all lead to a single conclusion: The Israeli political leadership increasingly believes that an attack on Iran will not be the disaster many American officials, and some ex-Israeli security officials, fear it will be.

These were vertigo-inducing conversations, to say the least. Next week, I’ll discuss why, from Netanyahu’s perspective, a strike on Iran, even if only marginally successful, might be worth the risk — and may be historically inevitable.

Israelis Grow Confident Strike on Iran’s Nukes Can Work – Bloomberg

The Pursuit of Zero Nuclear Weapons :: Stonegate Institute

Should the United States reduce its nuclear warheads to 300 as is being proposed by advocates of Global Zero (the campaign to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide)? Advocates of that number contend it would be sufficient to drop three bombs on each of fifty Russian and Chinese cities. Sounds reasonable, write the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times.

No. Not to us. It is, in fact, a terrible and dangerous idea. Such a reduction in the US stockpile would not only encourage the spread of nuclear weapons, but also make every crisis a possible nuclear Armageddon and even eventually cripple the US ability to maintain a credible, effective, stable and secure nuclear deterrent. In short, lowering our nuclear deterrent is no casual endeavor.

How much is enough has been a long-standing question facing US military planners. The development in the late 1960s of the ability to put many warheads on one missile increased our deployed arsenal from a few thousand warheads to over 12,000 weapons. This deterrent was to be deployed from three legs — missiles from sea, land and air, known as a “Triad,” that has kept the peace for more than half a century.

The Pursuit of Zero Nuclear Weapons :: Stonegate Institute

Israel delivers ultimatum to Barack Obama on Iran’s nuclear plans – Telegraph

Exuding confidence, Mr Netanyahu effectively brings with him an ultimatum, demanding that unless the president makes a firm pledge to use US military force to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb, Israel may well take matters into its own hands within months.

The threat is not an idle one. According to sources close to the Israeli security establishment, military planners have concluded that never before has the timing for a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities been so auspicious.

Israel delivers ultimatum to Barack Obama on Iran’s nuclear plans – Telegraph

I can’t imagine Obama making a firm pledge, so it’s going to be plan B – Israel attacks Iran.

China Has More Than 40 Of These Underground Air Bases And They’re Nearly Impossible To Destroy

Iran’s subterranean labs have made news lately, but it’s China’s bunkers and reinforced underground hangars that have been on the minds of Western military planners for generations.

Sean O’Connor and Dr. Carlo Kopp from Air Power Australia published a monograph on China’s underground air bases, and what it would take to bring them down may surprise you.

China began construction of its 40 or so hidden bases in the 1950s and though some have fallen out of military use and are open the public as museums, many are harboring China’s newest air fleet.

Coming at the bunkers with bombs aimed at “the front door” likely won’t do much to take structures like this out.

China Has More Than 40 Of These Underground Air Bases And They’re Nearly Impossible To Destroy

China’s Amateur Spying Problem | The Diplomat

Example can be piled upon example; however, the basic point remains: Chinese intelligence appears to be a secondary player in economic and industrial espionage. In a list of Chinese economic espionage cases released by the FBI, only four individuals out of 29 successfully prosecuted for economic espionage-related crimes between 2008 and 2010 were involved with Chinese intelligence agencies. Most of these economic spies sold highly technical components or export-controlled equipment that would be of use to engineers and industrial researchers rather than military planners and electronic warfare specialists.

If China seems to generate more economic spies than anywhere else, the obvious question is why? And why do so many “amateurs” get caught?

China’s Amateur Spying Problem | The Diplomat

Summer war in the Middle East?

This year, the game inventory is extraordinarily rich: among other plots, a great Arab revolution, a (much discussed) great Arab counter-revolution, a growing crisis in the Persian Gulf within the context of worsening Sunni-Shi’ite relations across the Middle East, a Palestinian declaration of independence looming by September if not earlier, and a speculative “war in or with Israel”, to quote American think-tank Stratfor, as “a major wild card that could destabilize the area further”.

The stakes are high, too: the metaphoric gunpowder keg is stacked full. Having in mind the massive arms buildup in the region during the past few years, we can expect any large conflict to be unusually brutal. Israeli military planners have predicted that hundreds of missiles will rain on Tel Aviv (mostly from Syria and Lebanon), and have issued grim warnings that they will do whatever it takes to curtail the fire. The Israeli home front – indeed, every home front in the region – will likely be hit particularly severely.

Summer war in the Middle East?

A game changer – “a Palestinian declaration of independence looming by September if not earlier.” The Palestinians plan to take their case to the UN in September.

China’s military dominance over Spratlys affecting international trade – report | The Philippine Star

China’s military dominance over the hotly-contested Spratly Islands will affect the free flow of international trade in the area classified by local and foreign military planners as a strategic link between the world’s east and west economies, according to a report by local military strategists.

“The area (Spratlys) is a major passage of goods since it straddles between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean which link the greater economies, both in the east and west. By this, a huge portion of the world’s economy is highly dependent on the free flow of goods in this area,” the report said.

China’s military dominance over Spratlys affecting international trade – report | The Philippine Star >> News >> Headlines