Tag Archives: Nuclear Attack

Why America should fear the worst [nuclear war] with Russia – The Week

The worst-case scenario is incredibly unlikely. It is also too terrible to be ignored.

I have sometimes imagined the aftermath of a full nuclear attack in my own hometown. I can see thousands of the wretched living walking north through town, coming up from the middle of the county. Most of the people are quiet, but some of them are wailing. Nearly all of them will be dead within days, depending on the wind. I think about what decisions I would make, knowing that the food I have is spoiling, that I need to move to survive, that even if civil order is maintained somewhere (Canada?) for now, nobody has an obligation or capacity to take us in, and that such order has little chance of surviving for long when nearly the entire continent’s food supply and internal trading routes have been destroyed. Starvation, murder, radiation poisoning, the new realities.

I know that I am probably only drifting into these dark places because when I was young and impressionable, I watched a VHS copy of the extremely upsetting TV movie The Day After.

Unlikely as it is, considering the nightmare scenario is sobering. It gives a certain clarity. In the face of that nuclear terror, frankly, I don’t give a rip about the territorial integrity of Ukraine, or our NATO allies. Weighed against the scenario where my family looks at me helplessly as we realize we’re all going to die miserably and everyone we know will too, I’d accept just about any breach of international norms. I guess I’m just selfish that way.

Why America should fear the worst with Russia – The Week

Just note the number of articles imagining the possibility of nuclear war with Russia. How have things changed in the last few months?

U.S. Cities Unprepared to Deal with Large-Scale Nuclear, Radiological Attack | Washington Free Beacon

Major U.S. cities lack the capabilities and know-how to effectively deal with the fallout from a large-scale nuclear and radiological attack by terrorists, according to the government’s top watchdog group.

The federal government has conducted “limited” planning and offered little guidance to major cities that are vulnerable to either a radiological or nuclear attack, according to a Monday report issued by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

U.S. Cities Unprepared to Deal with Large-Scale Nuclear, Radiological Attack | Washington Free Beacon

Monday Night with Matt

In this post I just pour out my thoughts on anything that comes to my mind. The first thing that comes to my mind is the prospect of nuclear war. When is it going to happen?

First, there are rules for everything. In this case we must treat the prospect of nuclear war just like a forest that is ready to burn down. Just because it is ready does not mean it will burn down immediately. One must wait for the right conditions. For example, summer might be the best time for a major forest fire.

The overall conditions exist for a major war between the US, China and/or Russia. Nobody is worried about it because everyone knows that a nuclear attack on the US is impossible. It would mean death for the other-side, so they would never do it.

Let me tell you a little story about AIG. The director of the Credit Default Swap department (the department that blew up AIG) said the premium for his default swaps was like free money. Calculations showed that it would be impossible for the default swaps he was selling to blow up. Yet blow up they did. Maybe he didn’t understand something.

Anyway, today no one is worried about a nuclear war because of the US retaliation. Well, let me tell you something. Leaders are worried about themselves. And if they can survive then that might be all that is needed. Obviously, not just them, but the military and a few million citizens might be all they need if they can finish off the other side. And that is where the US finds itself today.

The US can retaliate one time, then it has nothing and it is finished. The important people on the other side will survive and retain the ability to launch one additional nuclear attack.

There is going to be an event that happens that causes China and/or Russia to plan for a nuclear attack. We are now waiting for that event. The possibilities surround the Senkaku Islands and Israel. If something serious happens then start worrying.

Generally, I expect things to play out before 2025. Starting in the summer of 2011 I started worrying about an event that would act as a catalyst for a great-power war. Nothing happened in 2011. Then it moved to the summer of 2012. Again, nothing happened. We are now in the summer of 2013. I don’t really expect anything big to happen. It is the summer of 2014 and spring of 2015 that has me worried.

It seems that all trends pointing toward a great-power war are getting worse. I am seeing more and more articles written about a China-US war possibility. Putin is becoming more and more like Stalin, or at least more dangerous. The Middle East is about ready to blow up and somehow suck in Israel. China’s aggression in the South China Sea and East China Sea is getting worse.

I’m looking to 2014 and 2015 because of Bible prophecy: Comet ISON, blood moons, sabbath year (2014) and Jubilee year (2015).

If nothing happens in 2014 and 2015 then we have to keep watching until either something big happens or the trends start going in a different direction.

Changing topics

A few months ago I told you about some legal problems that I was having concerning a contract renewal. It’s been about 4 months since the end of the contract and I haven’t heard or seen anything. I found out that the guy was convicted of sexually assaulting two female students a few years ago. He got fired from a national coaching job. Then he got fired from a prominent school when it found out. Finally, he started his own school. Also, he has been playing contract games with other people too.

I really don’t think I will be hearing about his issue again. So I believe it’s over. If not, then I will reveal everything I know to the judge.

Changing topics

Since I am a mathematician, you are getting a different prospective on world events. I tend not to be hung up on emotions that say nuclear war is impossible. In 2003 when the first thought of nuclear war entered my mind, it never occurred to me that it was not possible. Only that the right conditions must be present, like they are now. As I warned people about trouble I noticed that it was not registering in their mind. It was as if I hadn’t said anything.

I studied Bible prophecy and started warning pastors and church members, but it was not registering. Nobody was really prepared to think about why trouble was coming.

Now that it is about 10 years later, and big trouble has still not arrived, one can get a little burnt out. So I tend to think in terms of trends and the accumulation of things, and less about something big. We are trending in the direction of something big. I don’t know when it will happen. I think it might be 2014 and 2015, but who knows.

If I am wrong about a great-power war involving the US, China and/or Russia, then it doesn’t matter. Once Iran gets a nuclear arsenal then all bets are off. The concept of MAD does not apply to Iran. Probably before 2025 I will have to start a nuclear war watch for Iran.

Changing topics

Why no comments on this blog? I shut down the comments section because of trolls. People who systematically set out to undermine this blog. Disagreement is fine, but systematically trying to undermine this blog is a problem. Also, I just don’t have time to debate liberals and think it is pointless. If I look into the sky and you say that is down, then that is a pretty big problem. Should I waste my time trying to argue otherwise? Liberals flip the world upside-down. Arguing is pointless unless you like to argue.

I am a hardcore conservative. So this blog reflect my biases. Generally, I think modern liberalism is like AIDS. It won’t kill you directly, but it will make it possible for other things to get you. That is a violation of rule #1: If I am dead then nothing else matters. That means keeping me (and my family too) alive and well is the number one objective. Modern liberalism heavily interferes with that objective. They want to gut our nuclear arsenal and take away our guns. In my mind something is deeply wrong about this. The world has been flipped upside-down to the point where now I am in danger. And that’s a problem.

One way to survive is to be off the radar screen by moving to another country. Easier said than done, unfortunately. It’s not like countries are flinging open their doors. And what if you can’t get a job in another country?

My family has been living in Switzerland over two years now. We are still working on language issues by using tutors and studying German. Obviously, we are a lot better at speaking German than when we first got here, but it still takes effort. This whole transition thing has not been easy. Although, it helps if failure is not an option. If you can’t fail then you won’t. You will find a way to make it work. Going back to the US was not an option for me. Therefore, failure was not an option.

My youngest son, who is in kindergarten, is pretty fluent in German. My other son understands, but is slow in speaking. Currently, he gets 4 hours of tutoring a week over Skype. My wife and I are studying too.

Switzerland is like the US should be. It has strong states and a weak federal government. Most income tax is paid to the states. The states call most of the shots. So I like the governing structure of Switzerland.

Tina Turner lives right across the lake from me. She just became a Swiss citizen and got married too. Photographers used drones to get pictures of her wedding at her mansion.

Changing topics

I hope you find the material I post interesting. Hopefully, I am wrong about everything, and we can ignore this nasty stuff about nuclear war.

Auf Wiedersehen

Matt

Nuclear Disarmament May Endanger US Second-Strike Capability

Our current force – which numbers 420 to 450 Minuteman, 12 Trident submarines and 60 B52 and B2 bombers – allows us to do this. But at lower numbers, such a sustainable second strike capability is called into question. Already, some Congressional proponents of disarmament have pushed for cutting our platforms significantly (although House votes this week defeated such measures overwhelmingly).

Unfortunately, the possibility of future instability is greater than ever before. China may soon have 100 missiles capable of striking America. According to a new intelligence assessment by the U.S. Air Force, both North Korea and Iran will also have the capability of striking the U.S. with a ballistic missile by 2015. Russia is also fully modernizing its nearly 500 submarine and land based-missiles and bombers. China is doing the same with its nuclear arsenal, while building missiles at a faster rate than any other country in the world.

If we reduce our warheads to 1000 from 1550, it could mean the mothballing of an entire wing (or more) of Minutemen missiles – and a partial (but serious) hollowing of both our submarine and bomber capabilities. …

Obama’s Nuclear Disarmament Plan is Dangerous Policy – World Report (usnews.com)

Do you see the problem with this debate? All the talk is about a second-strike capability. Further nuclear reductions might endanger the second-strike capability. However, no one is talking about a third or fourth-strike capability. A US second-strike capability allows Russian and Chinese underground, nuclear bunkers to be effective. One needs a third and fourth-strike capability to take out the leaders, military and other survivors. In other words, the ones making the decision to launch a nuclear attack against America can survive. And that is unacceptable.

The entire debate about US nuclear reductions is going the wrong way. It should be about increasing the size of the US nuclear arsenal so the US will always have a third and fourth-strike capability.

Trident downgrade would leave Britain vulnerable to nuclear attack – Telegraph

The Liberal Democrats have called for Britain’s nuclear submarine deterrent to be downgraded despite an official warning that it could make Britain “vulnerable” to attack.

Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said that Trident was the product of “cold war thinking” and that in the 21st century Britain no longer needs a “hair trigger” nuclear defence.

He believes the number of Vanguard submarines should be cut from four to three because the £19billion cost of providing “like-for-like” replacements is “too high a premium for our needs”.

His position represents a significant climb-down by the Lib Dems, who called for the Cabinet Office review because they want cheaper alternatives to Trident.

Trident downgrade would leave Britain vulnerable to nuclear attack – Telegraph

South Korea and Japan Thinking About Nuclear Weapons

Growing concern about North Korea’s nuclear program has led many in South Korea to favor the idea of building atomic weapons. Japan too is discussing such a move.

Perhaps it is merely basic human desire to keep up with the neighbors, but an increasing number of South Koreans are saying that they want nuclear weapons too.

Even in Japan, a country still traumatized by the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there is a debate about the once-taboo topic of nuclear weapons.

The mere fact that the bomb is being discussed as a policy option shows how North Korea’s nuclear program could trigger a new arms race in East Asia, unraveling decades of nonproliferation efforts. The government in Pyongyang conducted its third nuclear test in February and is believed to be preparing a fourth.

More South Koreans support developing nuclear weapons – latimes.com

Japan must develop nuclear weapons, warns Tokyo governor – Asia – World – The Independent

Tokyo’s outspoken Governor says his country, which suffered history’s only nuclear attack, should build nuclear weapons to counter the threat from fast-rising China.

In an interview with The Independent, Shintaro Ishihara said Japan could develop nuclear weapons within a year and send a strong message to the world.

“All our enemies: China, North Korea and Russia – all close neighbours – have nuclear weapons. Is there another country in the world in a similar situation?

Japan must develop nuclear weapons, warns Tokyo governor – Asia – World – The Independent

Scenario: Israel-Iran nuclear war

In those first minutes, they’ll be stunned. Eyes fixed in a thousand-yard stare, nerve endings numbed. They’ll just stand there. Soon, you’ll notice that they are holding their arms out at a 45-degree angle. Your eyes will be drawn to their hands and you’ll think you mind is playing tricks. But it won’t be. Their fingers will start to resemble stalactites, seeming to melt toward the ground. And it won’t be long until the screaming begins. Shrieking. Moaning. Tens of thousands of victims at once. They’ll be standing amid a sea of shattered concrete and glass, a wasteland punctuated by the shells of buildings, orphaned walls, stairways leading nowhere.

This could be Tehran, or what’s left of it, just after an Israeli nuclear strike.

Iranian cities — owing to geography, climate, building construction, and population densities — are particularly vulnerable to nuclear attack, according to a new study, “Nuclear War Between Israel and Iran: Lethality Beyond the Pale,” published in the journal Conflict & Health by researchers from the University of Georgia and Harvard University. It is the first publicly released scientific assessment of what a nuclear attack in the Middle East might actually mean for people in the region.

Its scenarios are staggering. An Israeli attack on the Iranian capital of Tehran using five 500-kiloton weapons would, the study estimates, kill seven million people — 86% of the population — and leave close to 800,000 wounded. A strike with five 250-kiloton weapons would kill an estimated 5.6 million and injure 1.6 million, according to predictions made using an advanced software package designed to calculate mass casualties from a nuclear detonation.

.:Middle East Online::Nuclear Terror in the Middle East: Lethality Beyond the Pale :.

Former Palestinian official advocates nuclear attack on Israel | World Tribune

The Palestinian long deemed Israel’s chief security partner has called for the use of nuclear weapons against the Jewish state. Former Palestinian Authority security chief Jibril Rajoub said the Arab League must help the Palestinians fight Israel, particularly the capture of
Jerusalem.

Rajoub said he supported nuclear attacks on Israel.

Former Palestinian official advocates nuclear attack on Israel | World Tribune

Moscow military parade marks WWII Victory Day on May 9, 2013

Russia has held a major military parade in the center of Moscow, an annual May 9 tradition to mark the German surrender in 1945 and the end of the Second World War in Europe. This follows French ceremonies on Wednesday.

President Vladimir Putin was among the dignitaries at Thursday’s military parade, with Russia celebrating its most important secular public holiday to mark the 1945 surrender of Germany in the Second World War, just over a week after Adolf Hitler committed suicide.

The annual Russian tradition was introduced by Soviet wartime leader Josef Stalin, but the ceremonies lulled somewhat in the 1990s under Russia’s liberal post-Communist leadership.

Moscow military parade marks WWII Victory Day | News | DW.DE | 09.05.2013

The best time for a nuclear attack from Russia/China is May 6th in 2013. Not that anything is going to happen in 2013. Around the middle of spring on a Monday is the best time. There is May 1 (May Day) and May 9 (Victory Day) that provide cover for movement of personel and military equipment.

In 2014 the best time for a nuclear attack is Monday May 5th.

A nuclear attack won’t happen without a good excuse. First we will see a good excuse which will probably come out of the Middle East. Then we wait for spring.

The Doomsday Calendar

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First to Nuke – China’s position is not clear

INTERPRETING any country’s pronouncements about its nuclear weapons can be a study in fine distinctions, but occasionally a state says — or fails to say — something in a clear break from the past. A Chinese white paper on defense, released on Tuesday, falls into this category and now demands our attention, because it omits a promise that China will never use nuclear weapons first.

That explicit pledge had been the cornerstone of Beijing’s stated nuclear policy for the last half-century. The white paper, however, introduces ambiguity. It endorses the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack but does not rule out other uses.

Is China Changing Its Position on Nuclear Weapons? – NYTimes.com

You weren’t really dumb enough to believe China’s no first use pledge, were you?