Those are the facts. Now for the questions. Immediately after Netanyahu’s visit, the Russians announced publicly that they finally intend to supply Assad with those S-300 missiles. Will Israel attack and destroy the missiles while they are being transferred, or will it wait until they have arrived but before they become operational? If so, what will be Assad’s response? How will Hezbollah respond? What will Iran do? And then there is the most interesting question of all. Such an attack would not only be considered a declaration of war against Syria and its allies, but also an assault on Russia.
In other words, is the Middle East teetering on the verge of a massive conflagration, which will draw Iran into the fighting, and will this situation be exploited by Israel, the US or both of them together to deal the long-awaited military blow against Iran’s nuclear program? One thing is certain. Anyone who wants to stay alive in this region and its immediate environs should hope that it does not.
The situation is more dangerous than ever, mainly because everyone involved — and there are plenty of people involved — is caught up in a kind of “Catch-22” situation. …
…
And so, everyone is applying pressure on everyone else in their most sensitive areas. Everything is about to blow up, diagonal red lines slash across the contested land from one end to the other, and the stench of gunpowder makes it difficult to breathe. This is a portrait of the Middle East today, in mid-2013. …
Tag Archives: Nuclear Program
Will Israel Take Out The Russian Missiles in Syria? – Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
Israel sends message to Iran, but what does it mean?
Does Iran actually understand the message that Israel is sending? That message is – we will respond if you cross our red lines. Sending game-changing weapons to Hezbollah is invoke an Israeli response.
Strikes in Syria Linked to Israel May Be a Signal to Iran – NYTimes.com
The twin airstrikes in Damascus on Friday and Sunday attributed to Israel appear to be more about Jerusalem’s broad, mostly covert battle with Iran and Hezbollah than about the bloody civil war raging in Syria.
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“Israel may be testing Iran,” Professor Maoz said. “Iran is the key. If Hezbollah gets a green light from Iran to retaliate, or if Syria does, Israel won’t be idle. It could lead to a regional war.”
Strikes in Syria Linked to Israel May Be a Signal to Iran – NYTimes.com
But this message also applies to Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran crosses Israel’s red line with its nuclear program, then Israel will attack. And if Iran cannot stop its nuclear enrichment to 20%, then it is likely to cross Israel’s red line with a few months. It’s not clear if Iran can stop its nuclear enrichment because it is getting direction from the spiritual Mahdi.
If you are Iran and are pretty sure that Israel is going to be forced to attack within a couple of months, then do you sit around and wait for it to happen? Or do you implement a preemptive strike now that Israel has provided an excellent excuse? In the case of preemptive strike, it would be Israel’s neighbors launching an attack so fierce that Israel cannot survive.
Iranian leaders seem to be suggesting that something big is up. They might be bluffing, but we can’t know for sure.
PressTV – Crushing response awaits Israel for aggression against Syria: Iran
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says Israel’s acts of aggression against Syria will not go unanswered and Tel Aviv will receive a “crushing response.”
Mehmanparast on Sunday called for vigilance against Israeli plots to create instability in the region, adding, however, that “oppression and crime in the region will not endure.”
ldquo;The Zionist regime must realize that the atrocities it committed in Syria will not go unanswered and it must await a crushing response.”
PressTV – Crushing response awaits Israel for aggression against Syria: Iran
If Iran can’t transport more advanced weapons to Hezbollah, and Syria is not exactly getting stronger due to its civil war, then doesn’t that imply that now is the best time for a preemptive strike against Israel? Assuming Iran is seriously considering one. Are the conditions for a preemptive strike going to get better for Iran and its allies as Syria’s civil war continues? What would happen if Assad falls? What happens to Hezbollah if Assad falls?
Does Israel’s message mean this – attack us (Israel) now because soon we (Israel) are going to get you (Iran)?
Another Cause for Alarm in Iran’s Nuclear Program: Earthquakes – Jillian Keenan – The Atlantic
These incidents have raised global concerns that a subsequent earthquake could strike even closer to the plant, causing a nuclear disaster similar to the 2011 incident at Fukushima. Despite international outrage, however, the Iranian government remains unconcerned about the risk. Only hours after the April 9 earthquake, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, reiterated Iran’s intention to build two more reactors at Bushehr, along with 16 additional reactors in other parts of the country. This decision even defies a report that Iranian nuclear scientists secretly compiled in 2011 in response to Fukushima, which concluded that the potential consequences of an earthquake near the power plant might be catastrophic. “The seismic danger to Iran and its implications for the reactor in Bushehr could be disastrous…similar to the disaster in Fukushima, Japan,” the report stated.
Another Cause for Alarm in Iran’s Nuclear Program: Earthquakes – Jillian Keenan – The Atlantic
Israeli attack on Iran would trigger world war III: diplomat – Tehran Times
The Iranian Ambassador to France, Ali Ahani, has said that in case Israel attacks Iran, there would be catastrophic consequences that can lead to third world war.
In an interview with Geo-economy published on Thursday, Ahani said, “Israel is constantly talking about Iranian threat, and is making efforts to convince the United States and Europe to harden their policy towards Iran and our nuclear program.”He added that it would be a sheer madness by Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, because Iran would not stay inactive.Israeli attack on Iran would trigger world war III: diplomat – Tehran Times
The Iranian Ambassador to France does not explain the mechansim leading to World War III. The real reason World War III is a possibility is that Iran has the backing of Russia and China. Both Russia and China have suggested that they will protect Iran. So a western attack on Iran implies retaliation on America by Russia and China.
I go into a lot more detail about this issue in the following article: Implied Nuclear Threat from Russia: Russia says would be threatened by Iran military action. This covers both Russia and China.
The big question is – why isn’t the current US administration getting ready for nuclear war? Because it doesn’t believe Russia and China. I guess preparing just as a precaution is asking too much.
Iran announces two new uranium-processing facilities | Washington Free Beacon
Iran has announced that it will open two new uranium-processing facilities on Tuesday as Western efforts to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear program ended in failure last week.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is preparing to inaugurate the “Saghand uranium complex near the Central city of Ardakan and Shahid Rezayeenejad Yellow Cake production facility” on Tuesday to mark the regime’s “National Day of Nuclear Technology,” according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.
Iran announces two new uranium-processing facilities | Washington Free Beacon
Clueless on North Korea, paralyzed on Iran
To recap: 1) We facing a growth threat from North Korea both in aggression against the South and in proliferating nuclear weapons material; 2) The White House has no effective policy for dealing with that; 3) The White House’s effort to stop Iran’s nuclear program through a combinations of sanctions and diplomacy is a complete failure; and 4) In the midst of this they sent a political flak, a know-nothing on foreign policy, out to stumble through TV appearances.
The result is the appearance of confusion and fickleness. Sitting in Pyongyang and Tehran, the rogue dictators must think we are exceptionally indecisive and disinclined to challenge them. And on his they would be right. (There is bipartisan failure here, certainly. The Bush administration did no better with Iran and North Korea than its successors.)
North Korea Tourism: Inside the Growing Business of Visiting Geopolitical Hot Spots | TIME.com
Dylan Harris runs Lupine Travel, a U.K.-based travel agency offering tours of geopolitical hot spots like Iran, Chernobyl and Dennis Rodman’s new favorite vacation destination, North Korea. Although the U.S. government has placed economic sanctions on the isolated totalitarian state because of its nuclear program — and issued warnings for those traveling to the country — Americans are not prohibited from traveling to North Korea.
We spoke to Harris about growing interest in travel to North Korea and what visitors can expect.
Harris says Lupine’s bookings to North Korea doubled in 2012 to around 600, about half from Asia and the rest from the U.S., the E.U. and Australia. His company’s four-day tours of North Korea cost from $780 to $1,100, depending on the time of year, not including airfare to Asia. (Americans must also pay an additional $430 for the flight from China because they’re barred from entering North Korea by train.)
North Korea Tourism: Inside the Growing Business of Visiting Geopolitical Hot Spots | TIME.com
US: Iran’s nuclear program characterized by ‘deception, deceit and delay’ – The Washington Post
A senior U.S. envoy accused Iran of “deception, defiance and delay” Wednesday in dealing with international concerns about its nuclear activities, reflecting frustration over Tehran’s expanding uranium enrichment program and stalled U.N. attempts to determine whether Tehran has worked secretly on atomic arms.
US: Iran’s nuclear program characterized by ‘deception, deceit and delay’ – The Washington Post
