JOHN MEARSHEIMER, University of Chicago: I think there’s no question that a nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to the region, because nuclear weapons are weapons of peace. They’re weapons of deterrence.
They have hardly any offensive capability at all. And if Iran had a nuclear deterrent, there’s no way that the United States or Israel, for that matter, would be threatening to attack Iran now, in the same way that if Saddam had had nuclear weapons in 2003, the United States wouldn’t have invaded Iraq, and if Libya had nuclear weapons in 2011, the United States wouldn’t have gone to war against Libya.
So I think that if you had a Middle East where other states besides Israel — and this, of course, includes Iran — had a nuclear deterrent, it would be a more peaceful region. But the problem is that there is always some small possibility that there will be nuclear use.
Is that the rule? Any country that pushes hard for nuclear weapons should get them? What about the NPL treaty? How could other countries not look at Iran and want nuclear weapons too? Imagine many more countries having nuclear weapons?
From the Bible: You will hear of wars and rumors of wars. I suggest we change phrase: You will hear of nuclear wars and rumors of nuclear wars. We are not there yet, but you can see in the next 10 to 20 years that it is coming.
Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, the nation’s top military officer said Thursday.
Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, cautioned over NATO’s expansion eastward and warned that the risks of Russia being pulled into local conflicts have “risen sharply.”
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Makarov added, according to Russian news agencies, that “under certain conditions local and regional conflicts may develop into a full-scale war involving nuclear weapons.”
A steady decline in Russia’s conventional forces has prompted the Kremlin to rely increasingly on its nuclear deterrent.
Makarov warned that the planned pullout of NATO forces from Afghanistan could trigger conflicts in neighboring ex-Soviet Central Asian nations that could “grow into a large-scale war.”
In its military doctrine, Russia has also described U.S. missile defense plans as another major security challenge, saying it could threaten its nuclear forces and undermine their deterrence potential.
Please note the general thinking – the Russian leadership is prepared for nuclear war. If it is prepared (mentally) for nuclear war involving local conflicts, then it’s not a big leap to be prepared for larger nuclear wars.
Let us attach a red flag to the end of a 2×4 and beat those in the west with it. Do you get it? The risk of a major nuclear war involving Russia and the west has never been greater.
A 2006 study produced by the US Army War College, Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran, suggested up to 1,000 air sorties might be required to ensure underground sites were eradicated, including possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. Thus a pre-emptive strike would actually mean all out, escalating nuclear war with Iran, military retaliation against Israel, hostilities in neighbouring states, and a global oil shock. This might not look so great as Obama goes before the American people next November to seek a second term.
In the end Obama will not attack Iran. Iran will get its nuclear weapons. Iran will help proliferate nuclear weapons’ know-how and technology across the globe, and it will help turn wars into nuclear wars across the globe.
“So Close To War” We Came So Close to World War Three That Day
James Forsyth and Douglas Davis
6 October 2007 On 6 September, when Israel struck a nuclear facility in Syria . . .
The article described what it called a “meticulously planned, brilliantly executed surgical strike by Israeli jets on a nuclear installation in Syria.” It claimed the raid “may have saved the world from a devastating threat. The only problem is that no one outside a tight-lipped knot of top Israeli and American officials knows precisely what that threat involved.” The article went on to say that this report has been confirmed by a “very senior British ministerial source,” who’d said: “If people had known how close we came to world war three that day there’d have been mass panic. Never mind the [seasonal] floods or foot-and-mouth [disease] — [Prime Minister] Gordon [Brown] really would have been dealing with the bloody Book of Revelation and Armageddon.”
There is no doubt, as was later confirmed, the raid happened. But how close did it bring us to World War Three? The question was a wake-up call, the return of the repressed — “the bloody Book of Revelation and Armageddon.” We thought we had left that all behind.
But one could not read the story without war-gaming concatenations of regional nuclear wars that might cascade, through miscalculation or misperception, into global conflagration from such a close call.
It’s hard for most people to even think about the possibility of nuclear war. They have completely lost their fear of nuclear war. It can’t happen! Unfortunately, that’s not true, and I’m going to show you why.
How can one possibly know that nuclear war approaches? History provides the clues we’re looking for. Just like history informs us when a forest is susceptible to a major forest fire. The exact timing might be impossible to figure out, but we can know the season.
Possible reasons for war:
1. The rise of a powerful rival in the presence of a declining superpower has led to war six out of the last seven times. Today it’s China versus America.
2. When a rival finds that it is incapable of keeping up militarily, then it may launch a preemptive strike before it is too late. Russia is now in danger of falling behind. This is the reason why Germany started World War I.
The decline of a superpower is a very important historical sign of bad things to come. America is now in this situation.
Another important historical sign of war is that when most people from the last big crisis have died then society becomes susceptible to another big crisis. The last big crisis was the Depression plus World War II.
Here are three possible catalysts for war:
1. A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel.
2. A conflict on the Korean peninsula.
3. A conflict over Taiwan.
The use of nuclear weapons by any country could result in an an escalation.
Introduction to Nuclear War – Signs 1 to 5
1. Doomsday shelters making a comeback. Today a lot of people are starting to become concerned about events occurring in the world. Iran and North Korea are working hard to develop nuclear weapons. China and Russia are upgrading their nuclear forces. The US is letting its nuclear forces atrophy. What’s a regular person to do? Well, why not buy a doomsday shelter?
Jason Hodge, father of four children from Barstow, Calif., says he’s “not paranoid” but he is concerned, and that’s why he bought space in what might be labeled a doomsday shelter.
Hodge bought into the first of a proposed nationwide group of 20 fortified, underground shelters — the Vivos shelter network — that are intended to protect those inside for up to a year from catastrophes such as a nuclear attack, killer asteroids or tsunamis, according to the project’s developers.
2. On November 8, 2010 a mystery missile was launched 35 miles off the coast of Los Angeles. Initially there were many reports that this so-called missile was actually a contrail from an airplane. After a few days many different experts weighed in on the topic by confirming that it was indeed a missile. It was a two-stage submarine launched ballistic missile. It was most likely China providing a warning to the United States. If you think about it for a second, you will realize that this act was absolutely outrageous and unacceptable. This is a nuclear challenge from China – stay out of our core interests, or prepare for nuclear war.
4. In a report by Russia Today, the Russian government is hurrying to complete 5,000 underground nuclear bunkers in Moscow by 2012. What’s the rush? And why do you need them in the first place?
5. In 2009 Russia announced that it reserves the right to use a preemptive nuclear strike if it feels its security is threatened. A couple of years earlier it announced that it reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in a preemptive nuclear strike to protect itself and its allies. But which countries are Russia’s allies? One such ally is Syria. This is the same Syria that is preparing for war with Israel, along with Hezbollah and Hamas. What would Russia do if Israel destroys Syria?
Russia in a new review of its policy on use of nuclear weapons will reserve the right to undertake a pre-emptive strike if it feels its security is endangered, a senior Kremlin official told a Russian newspaper.
I’ve just given you a short introduction to the possibility of nuclear war. This shows both Russia and China suggesting the possibility of nuclear war is real. Both countries are working hard to build underground nuclear bunkers. Both countries have brought up the use of nuclear weapons. But why would they want to attack America?
Why World War I Started (Historical Sign of War)
With the November 1912 announcement of the Russian Great Military Programme, the leadership of the German Army began clamoring even more strongly for a “preventive war” against Russia. Moltke declared that Germany could not win the arms race with France, Britain and Russia, which she herself had begun in 1911, because the financial structure of the German state, which gave the Reich government little power to tax, meant Germany would bankrupt herself in an arms race. As such, Moltke from late 1912 onwards was the leading advocate for a general war, and the sooner the better. Source: Wikipedia – Causes of World War I.
World War I started as a preemptive strike before Russia, France and Britain could gain a clear military advantage over Germany. This provides us with a clue as to why Russia might launch a preemptive nuclear strike against America in current times. Russia’s economy and military are in decline. The Russian state could be at risk of defeat in the future.
The key signs present right before the start of World War I (Historical signs of war):
[1.] The first cause was imperial overstretch. By 1914, the British Empire was showing signs of being a “weary Titan,” in the words of the poet Matthew Arnold. …
[2.] Great-power rivalry was another principal cause of the catastrophe. The problem was not so much Anglo-German rivalry at sea as it was Russo-German rivalry on land. …
[3.] The third fatal factor was an unstable alliance system. Alliances existed in abundance, but they were shaky. …
[4.] The presence of a rogue regime sponsoring terror was a fourth source of instability. The chain of events leading to war, as every schoolchild used to know, began with the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo by a Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip. …
[5.] Finally, the rise of a revolutionary terrorist organization hostile to capitalism turned an international crisis into a backlash against the global free market. …
What about the historical signs of war today? Here they are:
1. America is in decline.
2. Both China and Russia are powerful rivals. China is on the rise while Russia is in decline.
3. NATO’s direction is no longer clear. If NATO has a pulse, it’s very weak – Washington Times
4. Terror sponsoring regimes: Iran and Syria are two terror sponsoring regimes.
5. A revolutionary terrorist organization is Al Qaeda which is more like “Islamo-Bolshevists” than “Islamo-Fascists.”
The first three signs represent the ability of a major war to take place. The last two signs represent a catalyst to facilitate a major war. They are all present today.
The catalyst for a major great-power war exists in the Middle East surrounding Israel. Should a war in the Middle East involving Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria involve a large number of Arab deaths, then a great-power war could follow. If Israel were to use nuclear weapons against its neighbors then you should be very worried.
The attack on Pearl Harbor (or Hawaii Operation, Operation Z, as it was called by the Japanese Imperial General Headquarters) was an unannounced military strike conducted by the Japanese navy against the United States’ naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of Sunday, December 7, 1941 (Hawaiian time, December 8 by Japan Standard Time), later resulting in the United States becoming militarily involved in World War II. It was intended as a preventive action to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning to wage in Southeast Asia against Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States. The attack consisted of two aerial attack waves totaling 353 aircraft, launched from six Japanese aircraft carriers.
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a preventive or preemptive strike to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning to wage in Southeast Asia. This suggests that in a future attack on America one should seriously consider a preemptive nuclear strike out of the blue.
Why Would Russia and China Want to Attack America?
There are two key reasons that Russia and China would want to launch a nuclear attack on America:
Russia’s military industrial complex will be unable to keep up with America’s technological innovations in the future. In the next 10 to 15 years Russia’s nuclear forces could be at risk due to America’s missile defenses and global strike capabilities.
“The revival of Russia’s military might under Putin is merely a myth,” Stanislav Belkovsky, who head the Institute for National Strategy, said at a presentation of the report. “The Russian armed forces have degraded completely under Putin.”
If the current trends continue, the report warns, Russia’s nuclear arsenals would shrink from about 680 intercontinental ballistic missiles now to between 100 and 200 missiles over the next 10 years.
Russia today faces a similar problem as Germany did prior to World War I. If it does nothing then its chief adversary, America, will probably gain a clear military advantage in the future.
7. If the new START treaty is not ratified by the US, then Moscow will be placed into a situation where it cannot keep up. The US will increase its missile defense capabilities over time, and gradually increase its global strike capabilities. Effectively, the defense of Russia will be put at risk with the failure of the new START treaty.
Should Russia sit around and wait for the US to overwhelm Russia’s defensive capabilities, or should Russia strike the US while it still can? This is the choice Russia has.
… If the arms control treaty fails, Moscow has no means to stop US progress either on missile defense or on enhancing its global strike program, perhaps the single most frightening military threat perceived by Moscow. …
Moscow would also lose valuable potential and actual economic gains. Failure to ratify the treaty could undermine the entire edifice of the new cooperation like the treaty on civilian nuclear cooperation, Russian entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Obama administration’s efforts to bring about what has always been lacking in bilateral relations: a solid economic underpinning creating a community of interest on both sides to uphold and sustain ties through difficult times (The Moscow Times, November 8). These are among the fears expressed by pundits who have publicly registered their anxiety about the future course of the relationship (RIA Novosti, November 3; www.pravda.ru, November 3).
Finally, failure of the ratification process confronts Russia with very difficult questions concerning the future course of its military policies and investments. If it cannot have mutual deterrence and arms control at more affordable levels as it spends huge amounts to modernize its army’s conventional weaponry, how would it react to that outcome? Certainly, there are those in the Kremlin who harbor unceasing suspicion of US interests, goals, and capabilities and those who would like to continue to place their priority on nuclear weapons in a strongly anti-US stance. Should the treaty fail to be ratified they would be emboldened, but can Russia afford both a sizable nuclear and huge conventional modernization? Therefore, the concern in the government and media about the outcome of the treaty is well founded because its failure will then confront Russia with a host of unpalatable situations that require major policy decisions in an environment of competitive foreign and defense policy agendas, leading to an outcome that no government looks forward to facing.
8. Russia doesn’t think nuclear war is out of bounds. In 2008 four-star Chief of the General Staff Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, has warned in the future there could be full-scale wars, even the use of nuclear weapons is not regarded as inconceivable. Watch this video about how Russia introduced medium range ballistic missile launchers (SS-21) capable of launching missiles with nuclear warheads in the Georgian war. The SS-21 missiles can be conventional or nuclear. The conventional warhead is not significant. This represented a threat of nuclear retaliation if America helped Georgia with precision guided conventional weapons.
9. China is seeking a sphere of influence in its surrounding area. Currently, America is standing in its way. China has also defined an international body of water as its core interest – the South China Sea. America has so far not recognized this core interest.
The Chinese people are not happy about a U.S. aircraft carrier so close to China while conducting naval exercises with South Korea.
At this stage, China may not react through a show of force to the US fleet cruising into the international waters of the Yellow Sea. But it does not mean that the Chinese people will tolerate it. Whatever harm the US military maneuver may inflict upon the mind of the Chinese, the United States will have to pay for it, sooner or later. Just look at the thousands of messages Chinese readers have left on the Global Times Chinese-language website. More than 92 percent of them agree that the joint naval drill will be a huge threat to China. Many voiced their concerns, in lines such as: It’s a matter of the dignity of a big country; China has to grow even faster in order to avoid the bully and such shame; Don’t trust the United States any more.
A senior Chinese general has warned that his country could destroy hundreds of American cities with nuclear weapons if the two nations clashed over Taiwan.
Major general Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the National Defence University, said he was expressing a private opinion, but his comments, the most inflammatory by a senior government official in 10 years, will fuel growing concerns in Washington about the rise of China.
11. China is preparing for the “eventuality of a nuclear war.”
Defense analysts for the British intelligence service MI6 believe China is preparing for the “eventuality of a nuclear war.” The conclusion follows evidence that Beijing has built secretly a major naval base deep inside caverns which even sophisticated satellites cannot penetrate, says a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
In an unusual development, the analysts have provided details to the specialist defense periodical, Jane’s Intelligence Review, which published satellite images of the base location which is hidden beneath millions of tons of rock on the South China Sea island of Hainan.
In the run up to WWI, an influential book was written by General Von Bernhardi titled Germany and the next War. The book manifests Germany’s frustration and militancy. Von Bernhardi proclaims that, with her scientific and intellectual achievements, Germany should have a more prominent role in world affairs, more colonial trophies with access to petroleum reserves. Germany’s GDP had passed that of Great Britain and France and they now wanted more respect. France and Great Britain were maneuvering as best they could to keep Germany (a perceived threat) out of the game. Bernhardi’s book also argues that war was not only a justifiable means to achieve that goal but even an obligation of Germany’s leadership.
And now in 2009 we witness the wide distribution of a book titled Unhappy China, which expresses China’s frustrations with their current position.
Historian Niall Ferguson discusses the three key factors present before wars in the 20th century.
In The War of the World, I argued that three factors made the location and timing of lethal organised violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first was ethnic disintegration: violence was worst in areas where majorities lived uneasily side by side with religious or linguistic minorities. The second factor was empires in decline: when imperial rule crumbled, battles for power were most bloody. The third was economic volatility: the greater the magnitude and frequency of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was.
The three E’s are present today: The American empire is in decline, the global financial crisis is causing economic volatility and the Middle East is set to blow up into a regional war sooner than we would like to think.
12. Currently America is in economic decline, while China’s economy is on the rise. In the last 7 times that a global empire was challenged by a rival power, war has occurred 6 times.
Will the rise of China lead to conflict with the US?
Great power rivalries in history:
1. Spain versus Holland in the 16th century. [War]
2. Holland versus England in the 17th century. [War]
3. Britain versus France in both the 18th and 19th centuries. [War]
4. France and Britain versus Germany in the 20th century. [War]
5. Germany versus Russia in 1914. [War]
6. Germany versus Russia (Soviet Union) in 1941. [War]
7. Soviet Union versus the US and its allies in the Cold War after 1945. [No War]
China’s Risky Bet Against History
Is this the beginning of an enduring rivalry or merely a temporary downturn?
The answer lies in the past as much as the present – but history provides some cause for concern about the future of US-China relations. A careful survey of the early twentieth century reveals that rising autocracies inherently and predictably spawn mistrust, and that their ascent culminates in rivalry, if not outright military conflict. By contrast, rising powers with rule of law and transparent governance offer multiple avenues for reassurance, meaning they can rise without provoking strategic competition.
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No Democracy: No Peaceful Rise
So why have some powers risen peacefully while others haven’t? The answer is regime type, a lesson of history derived from the most important power transition of them all—the eclipse of Pax Britannica.
13. The signs of social unrest are just starting to appear in Russia due to Putin’s incompetence and the global financial crisis. This type of economic volatility is one reason for war.
Russians have good reasons to despise the increasingly neo-Soviet regime that Putin, a proud KGB spy, has created. And despite the shameful lack of support from Barack Obama and other craven Western leaders, they have good reason to be brave enough to challenge him.
When he came to power two years ago, Russia’s so-called “president” Dmitri Medvedev (in reality nothing more than Putin’s puppet) promised that he would bring a new level of fairness to Russia’s infamously corrupt electoral process. But exactly the opposite has happened. A Russian court has totally banned Russia’s most salient opposition party, Yabloko, from taking part in the next round of elections in the Russian regions. The court upheld the actions of local political leaders who rejected electoral petitions simply because they “just looked false.”
14. China is experiencing problems because of its rapid growth. Due to the rapid growth in real estate prices, widespread property seizure by the government has become a big problem:
The Chinese government has moved to calm huge public anger over the widespread seizure of property, an issue that has driven three people to set themselves on fire in as many months.
A large proportion of China’s estimated 100,000 or so public protests each year are driven by rage over compulsory evictions. Over the past decade, hundreds of thousands of Chinese have been forcibly evicted from their homes to make way for one of the greatest property booms of all time.
15. Russia believes that a war with NATO is possible.
“This is very significant. Right now the present Russian leadership believes that a war with Nato is very much possible,” Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defence analyst, told the Guardian. “This is the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that the Russian military is actually preparing for an all-out nuclear war with America.”
He added: “I believe we [the Russians] are sending the west a serious message. The message is treat us with respect, and if you don’t go into our backyard we won’t go into yours. Russia wants to divide the world into spheres of influence. If not, we will prepare for nuclear war.”
Felgenhauer said Russia’s military was old but still effective. “Our military is backward in its development. But we still have a sizeable nuclear potential. It can kill a hell of a lot of people,” he said.
16. China is thinking about a cold war and a hot war.
Now almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run newspaper, agree that “a cold war will break out between the US and China”.
An independent survey of Chinese-language media for The Sunday Times has found army and navy officers predicting a military showdown and political leaders calling for China to sell more arms to America’s foes. The trigger for their fury was Obama’s decision to sell $6.4 billion (£4 billion) worth of weapons to Taiwan, the thriving democratic island that has ruled itself since 1949.
The West’s problems are, however, nothing compared to the social and economic catastrophe shaping in China.
The one-child policy has, in its own harsh terms, worked: reducing births by between 300 and 400 million. But it has induced a premature, and alarmingly rapid, ageing process. China has given itself a rich country’s problem before it has become rich: for all its economic performance, Chinese incomes are still nowhere near as high as those in Western societies at the point when they started to age.
18. Tension between between mainland China and Taiwan is building.
A senior Taiwanese official has told a defense forum in the United States that despite rapidly warming commercial relations with Taipei, China’s military threat against the island is growing, Taiwanese media reported Tuesday.
The reports call into question the efficacy of China’s efforts to use its huge financial resources to convince Taiwanese both in and out of government that political union with the mainland is in the island’s interest.
Deputy Defense Minister Andrew Yang told a U.S.-Taiwan Business Council meeting in Maryland on Monday that despite considerable progress on commercial ties, the mainland is continuing to deploy more and more sophisticated weapons against the island, according to reports Tuesday from opposition and pro-government newspapers and the government-owned Central News Agency.
19. A regional Middle East war approaches. This war will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. Thousands of missiles will rain down on Israeli cities. Syria and Lebanon have missiles with chemical warheads which they might use on Israeli cities. The response from Israel could include nuclear weapons.
A new report based on extensive conversations with regional decisionmakers, released Monday, Aug. 2, by the International Crisis Group, the respected mediation organization of former diplomats, warns of the possibility of war. “The situation in the Levant is … exceptionally quiet and uniquely dangerous, both for the same reason,” the Crisis Group warns. “The buildup in military forces and threats of an all-out war that would spare neither civilians nor civilian infrastructure, together with the worrisome prospect of its regionalization, are effectively deterring all sides.” But while Hizballah and its regional backers, Syria and Iran, believe that the buildup in the Shi’ite militia’s arsenal and capabilities is deterring Israel from launching attacks on any of them, Israel views the acquisition by Hizballah of a missile arsenal capable of raining destruction on Israeli cities as an intolerable threat. “As Hizballah’s firepower grows,” the Crisis Group notes, “so too does Israel’s desire to tackle the problem before it is too late … What is holding the current architecture in place is also what could rapidly bring it down.”
20. Bible prophecy suggests that something big is about to happen. If the end times started with the arrival of modern Israel, then something big is up.
Please note that I have provided one possible interpretation of Bible prophecy. Others are possible.
a. Nebuchadnezzar’s statue suggests that the old Roman empire will rise again. Later another empire rises with 10 parts or zones. Where is America, Russia and China? How could a weak Roman empire (the EU?) rise again to dominate the world unless America, Russia and China were greatly weakened or eliminated?
The scenario outlined below is about Israel’s destruction of its neighbors and the subsequent retaliation on America by Russia and China.
b. Amos 1: Provides the timing for the destruction of Israel’s neighbors, and informs us that this is God’s judgment. They all arrive at three wars with Israel at different times, but gather together in the fourth war. It will be in the fourth war that they are destroyed. They are now at or near the third war.
c. Isaiah 17: Discusses the destruction of Damascus, Syria. Who cares about Damascus, Syria? Is it a sign?
d. Isaiah 18: A powerful friend of Israel is going to be destroyed. Pay attention to when Israel destroys its neighbors with nuclear weapons in the summer. By the following spring there will be sign: This powerful friend brings gifts to the new Jewish temple on the Temple Mount. The destruction of this powerful friend could begin at any time after the gifts are delivered.
21. How significant American wars follow a cycle of 80 to 100 years. These are the wars that plunge the entire country into a crisis. A new 20 year crisis period starts about the time that most people who directly experienced the last crisis have died off. There was the Revolutionary War, Civil War and Depression plus World War II. The current crisis period runs from 2005 to 2025.
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.
Watch this video about the Fourth Turning. In 1997 the authors make some very interesting predictions about the problems we are about to face.
22. What nuclear gaming tells us about the START treaty.
The results of the gaming exercises are clear. Pursuing nuclear disarmament in a proliferated world without employing missile defense and maintaining credible nuclear deterrence increases instability, which can lead to nuclear war. Moreover, it is likely that New START will fail to protect the U.S. and its allies from attack, to provide verification of existing programs, and to prevent nuclear proliferation.
Pursuing an arms control strategy of “protect and defend”—in other words, fielding missile defenses and maintaining a modernized, credible nuclear deterrent—appears to be the best option for pursuing arms control and nonproliferation policy while limiting the potential for conflict.
23. The mathematics of war [see video below]. Wars and attacks within wars precisely follow a power-law distribution. The longer you go between wars or attacks then the bigger they will get which is contrary to the thinking of most people. Most people think that the longer you go since a major war like World War II, then the less likely a major war will happen. The mathematics of war shows that this thinking is not true.
It turns out that forests, sandpiles, earthquakes, financial markets, wars and attacks within wars follow the power-law distribution. What happens to a forest when you put out every fire? Eventually the forest experiences a fire so massive that it can’t be put out. When you don’t allow the small fires or collapses to occur, then eventually they get so big that they can’t be stopped.
Concerning war, hasn’t the U.S. been at war many times since World War II? Yes, but they have not been gut wrenching wars that severely affect society. Most people can’t even comprehend the possibility of a major war on American soil. It can’t happen. Big wars are no more. It’s better to eliminate our nuclear weapons so that other countries will follow. Apparently, we’re disarming to become more safe.
You can see the power-law at work because over time historical information has changed people’s thinking in the future. No major wars during our lifetime mean that they will not occur in the future. So no need to worry. Think about the forest fire example. What did no fires for a long time mean? Did it mean that no fires will ever happen, or did it mean that once a fire came it would be huge?
To understand this better you need to start reading many of the articles in the “power_law” category by using the link below.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger says that unless civilized nations act soon to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions “the world’s going to go to war over this.”
His remark came in reaction to the news that Russia has announced it will begin loading nuclear-fuel rods into an Iranian nuclear reactor on Aug. 28.
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“When you’re as old as I am,” he told Cavuto, “if you remember how much this sounds like the workup to WWII, when everybody was letting things go by, letting things happen, and nobody was doing anything to stop what was clearly a track toward war. And we’re doing it again, we’re doing it again.
Australian intelligence agencies fear involvement in Mideast nuke war
The warnings about the dangers of nuclear conflict in the Middle East are given in a secret US embassy cable obtained by WikiLeaks and provided exclusively to Fairfax newspapers. They reflect views obtained by US intelligence liaison officers in Canberra from across the range of Australian intelligence agencies.
25. The 1930s – An Era Strikingly Similar to Our Own
Paul Johnson’s Churchill recalls an era strikingly similar to our own.
Johnson notes that when Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany in 1933, most Europeans failed to recognize either the nature or the gravity of the threat. Winston Churchill — retired soldier, popular writer, not very popular politician — was the exception. He understood that unless free peoples acted decisively, they would come under attack, sooner or later.
Churchill was derided as an alarmist, or even a “warmonger.”
Mullen: Risk of [Nuclear] War Rising on Korean Peninsula
The latest example of bellicose rhetoric came with North Korea warning of nuclear war, as South Korea planned live-fire naval drills to run Monday through Friday. Those drills follow a North Korea artillery attack on front-line Yeonpyeong Island that killed two South Korean marines and two civilians.
27. In the early 1990s Deng Xiaoping introduced the 24 Characters strategy: keep cool-headed to observe, be composed to make reactions, stand firmly, hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead, and be able to accomplish something. What does “hide our capabilities” and “bide our time” mean? Just like the word “jihad”, there are different interpretations. The story below provides one chilling possibility. It suggests that America is in trouble.
The Parable of Goujian
The story of the king [Goujian] who slept on sticks and tasted gall is as known to the Chinese as George Washington and the cherry tree are to Americans. He has become a symbol of resistance against the treaty ports, foreign concessions and the years of colonial humiliation.
King Goujian (Yue) was defeated by King Fuchai (Wu) and taken prisoner. He worked in the royal stables and gradually won the respect of Fuchai. Later he was allow to govern his old kingdom under Fuchai. Goujian quietly bided his time and hide his capabilities over eight years until he was strong enough to finally attack and defeat Fuchai. During the eight years he quietly undermined Fuchai and facilitated Fuchai’s growth of debt.
Taken like that, the parable of Goujian sums up what some people find alarming about China’s rise as a superpower today. Ever since Deng Xiaoping set about reforming the economy in 1978, China has talked peace. Still militarily and economically too weak to challenge America, it has concentrated on getting richer. Even as China has grown in power and rebuilt its armed forces, the West and Japan have run up debts and sold it their technology. China has been patient, but the day when it can once again start to impose its will is drawing near.
The war between Wu and Yue comprised several separate phases. It was started when a Yue princess, who was married to one of the princes of the neighbouring State of Wu, left her husband and fled back to the country of Yue. This became the spark for the war to come.
Upon the death of Yunchang and the accession of Goujian, King Helü of Wu seized the opportunity and launched an attack on Yue. At the Battle of Zuì L? (????), however, Yue defeated Wu, and King Helü was mortally wounded; before his death he instructed his son, King Fuchai of Wu, “Never forget Yue!” Yue would be defeated three years later by a resurgent Wu, and Goujian captured, to serve as Fuchai’s servant for three years until he was eventually allowed to return to his native state.
Upon resuming his rule King Goujian quickly appointed skilled politicians as advisors, such as Wen Zhong and Fan Li, to help build up the kingdom. During this time, his ministers also worked to weaken the State of Wu internally through bribes and diplomatic intrigue.
All the time, whilst ruling his kingdom, Goujian never relished in riches as a king, but instead ate food suited for peasants, as well as forcing himself to taste bile. This way, he could remember his humiliations while serving under the State of Wu. There is a Chinese idiom, ???? (Pinyin: wò x?n cháng d?n, literally “sleeping on sticks and tasting gall”), the second half of which refers to Goujian’s perseverance.
After ten years of economic and political reforms the last phase of the war began, by which time the State of Yue had come a long way from its previous defeat; as described in the Shiji, Ten years of reforms; the state is rich, the warriors well-rewarded. The soldiers charge in the face of arrows like thirsty men heading for drink… making use of Fuchai’s expedition to struggle with Jin for hegemony Goujian led his army and successfully attacked the Wu capital, killing the crown prince. In the 24th year of his reign (473 BC), Goujian led another expedition, laying siege to the capital for three years before it fell; when a surrender from Fuchai was refused he committed suicide, and Wu was annexed by Yue. After his victory, he ruthlessly killed Fuchai’s scholars and his own scholars who helped him, not allowing himself to make the same mistake Fuchai did by letting his enemies live.
King Goujian’s army was known for forcing their front line, composed of criminals sentenced to death, to commit suicide by decapitation to scare their enemy before battle.
28. Demographic problems around the world suggest that great upheaval is ahead.
The weakening of the developed countries might not be a cause for concern if we knew that the world as a whole were likely to become more pacific. But unfortunately, just the opposite may be the case. During the 2020s, the developing world will be buffeted by its own potentially destabilizing demographic storms. China will face a massive age wave that could slow economic growth and precipitate political crisis just as that country is overtaking America as the world’s leading economic power. Russia will be in the midst of the steepest and most protracted population implosion of any major power since the plague-ridden Middle Ages. Meanwhile, many other developing countries, especially in the Muslim world, will experience a sudden new resurgence of youth whose aspirations they are unlikely to be able to meet.
The risk of social and political upheaval could grow throughout the developing world—even as the developed world’s capacity to deal with such threats declines. Yet, if the developed world seems destined to see its geopolitical stature diminish, there is one partial but important exception to the trend: the United States. While it is fashionable to argue that US power has peaked, demography suggests America will play as important a role in shaping the world order in this century as it did in the last.
29. Even the Pentagon is starting to acknowledge that nuclear war may be a distinct possibility with China.
Gates sees what’s going on, and he is worried. So worried, in fact, that he has allowed Pentagon intelligence experts to present an alarming assessment of recent Chinese military moves to the new Congress. The secret briefing describes a pattern of technology investments and breakthroughs signaling that China is likely to be more assertive about its regional security interests in the years ahead. That won’t come as a big surprise to China’s neighbors, many of whom have experienced growing friction with Beijing over maritime sovereignty and territorial boundaries in recent years. But what worries U.S. intelligence analysts is that China is now moving to acquire the kind of sophisticated military systems only America has had — a potentially decisive advantage given the fact that U.S. forces in the Western Pacific are far from home and enjoy access to only a handful of bases in the region.
…
What that means for the Pentagon is that America’s military must begin preparing for the possibility that it might be in a war with China sometime in the next few decades. …
30. China is not afraid of a nuclear war with America because it is willing to sacrifice its people, the dissident said. Now take a look at the statement of a Chinese general named Zhu Chenghu’s:
… declaring that China would launch nuclear weapons against America if it attacked China and that “we will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all the cities east of Xian,” which would include Beijing, Shanghai, and Canton.
The general is referring to help that America may provide Taiwan in a war with China. If America uses its non-nuclear weapons to protect Taiwan, then China may respond with nuclear weapons. So the fact that China may lose a billion people doesn’t really seem to bother the general. Could you imagine the uproar if a Western general made a similar comment?
The US strategic position in the Pacific is starting to look a lot like it did 70 years ago — on the eve of Pearl Harbor.
… China in 2011 confronts a US policy swinging from apathy to toughness without the military leverage to back it up. Beijing’s aggressive bullying of neighbors over sovereign rights in the South China Sea, and its steady military buildup, including its navy, deserves presidential attention. But the new militancy from the White House is jarring.
President Obama reassured Asian heads of state in Hawaii last month, “We’re here to stay” — which is supposed to intimidate China into playing nice. Plus, we’re sending troops to Australia to show a “more broadly distributed military presence” in Asia, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton terms it. Our Navy will step up operations there, too.
Yet that Navy is even smaller than in 1933, with up to 60 more ships destined for retirement with few replacements in sight. And our troops in Australia will number less than 2,500 — just enough to be provocative, but far too small to do anything effective.
This is a little story about how the North Korean artillery bombardment leads to the use of nuclear weapons and further escalation. I think it’s a sign of the times.
If we have to start worrying about nuclear wars, then we have a problem. Sooner or later those worries will come true. Today it’s North Korea, and tomorrow it will be Iran. What happens if Israel uses nuclear weapons? In each case there is the danger that other parties could be drawn into the conflict. The United States could end up getting nuked because of the acts of other countries.
It’s time to prepare for nuclear war against the United States. Nuclear bomb shelters are making a comeback in America, Japan and Israel. Many people see what’s coming and don’t want to get caught without being prepared. You had better do the same.
At the time, people called it the Third World War. Now though, we refer to the terrible events of late 2010 in a different way. We call this the First Nuclear War.
It began on November 23, 2010, when North Korean artillery bombarded the small island of Yeonpyeong, which lies in the Yellow Sea, just south of the maritime border between the two Koreas.
More than 60 properties were set ablaze and four people were killed. South Korea’s staunch ally President Barack Obama immediately dispatched an aircraft carrier to take part in exercises with the South Korean Navy in the Yellow Sea.
With the decline of the American empire, the global financial crisis and a Middle East that is about to blow up, historian Niall Ferguson announced that the “age of upheaval” has begun. Just in case you thought it couldn’t get any worse, now it has. The “start of the end of the world” begins now.
We have now learned that North Korea has built a new modern uranium enrichment plant with 2,000 centrifuges. This plant didn’t even exist in April 2009. How is this even possible given that North Korea can’t even afford to feed its people? There is one likely answer – North Korea had help from another country. That country is most likely Iran. Iran has started spreading its nuclear technology to other countries. North Korea may be the first country, but there are likely to be more. I would look to Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, Turkey and Burma as possible targets for nuclear technology proliferation from Iran and now North Korea.
The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, and there is no stopping it. Wars between countries will turn into nuclear wars between countries. As the Bible says, “there will be wars and rumors of wars,” except what the Bible really meant to say was, “there will be nuclear wars and rumors of nuclear wars.”
Although North Korea has been producing nuclear material, since the 1950s, it relied on using plutonium from spent fuel, until recently. But the up-to-date technology and the speedy construction of the uranium enrichment plant raises questions of foreign assistance, considering North Korea can’t even afford to feed its people.
“The scientist, Siegfried S. Hecker, a Stanford professor who previously directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, said in an interview that he had been “stunned” by the sophistication of the new plant, where he saw “hundreds and hundreds” of centrifuges that had just been installed in a recently gutted building that had housed an aging fuel fabrication center, and that were operated from what he called “an ultra-modern control room.” The North Koreans claimed 2,000 centrifuges were already installed and running, he said.”
North Korea’s uranium plant sends a chilling message to Washington
The second striking element of the discovery is the speed at which the 2,000-centrifuge enrichment plant was built. It was not there just a year ago. That is highly unusual because getting precise high-speed centrifuges to work consistently and lining them up in “cascades” of 300 machines would normally take years.
“There is an anomaly in how rapidly this has been built,” said David Albright, the head of the institute, which yesterday published satellite pictures of the site. “That raises the question of whether this plant was originally put together somewhere else and was moved to Yongbyon, or whether there is a parallel plant elsewhere.”
Over the next 10 to 15 years we will probably see one or more nuclear wars according to the US intelligence community.
I project an excellent chance for nuclear war in the Middle East between Israel and its neighbors during Obama’s term in office. This is based on a chemical missile attack by Syria on Israeli cities, and an Israeli nuclear response.
This is an excellent time for our own nuclear forces to be taken out of service due to old age. This will start happening unless Obama does something to stop it, which I doubt he will.
I forgot to tell you. Syria is an ally of Russia. Russia has threatened to use a preemptive nuclear strike to protect its allies. That means America could be subject to a nuclear strike if Syria is destroyed by Israel with nuclear weapons.
Have a nice day.
Matt
From the article:
THE use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely by 2025, US intelligence warned in a report on global trends that forecasts a tense, unstable world shadowed by war.
“The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons,” said the report.
“Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions.”
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