1913 Intel

International Conflict, Western World Threats and Geopolitical Intelligence

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Rising Ambitions, Sinking Population

Posted by Matt in October 25th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Demographics, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Russia is in the midst of a genuine demographic disaster from which its rulers have no obvious exit strategy. Although the Russia’s fortunes (and the Kremlin’s ambitions) have waxed on a decade of windfall profits from oil and gas, the human foundations of the Russian nation — the ultimate sources of the country’s wealth and [...]

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Why Russia Is Really Weak

Posted by Matt in July 20th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Russia, general, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Military
Army remains poorly trained, malnourished and demoralized. Alcoholism, suicide and corruption are rife. Weaponry is aging and newer models arrive at a trickle: India has bought more Russian tanks since 2001 than the Russian Army.
The Economy
What happens when–not if–oil and gas prices begin to retreat?
Human Capital
Russia’s human capital is being ravaged. The population is [...]

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Gazprom can turn the heat off, stoking U.S.-Russian rivalry

Posted by Matt in July 16th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Africa, Energy, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Russia’s use of companies such as OAO Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas producer, to buy energy assets in Africa may thwart U.S. efforts to limit the role of oil and gas as political weapons wielded from Moscow.

Getty Images Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (left) and Gazprom chief Alexei Miller visit the Sevmash shipyard in [...]

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Iran and Russia sign major oil deal

Posted by Matt in July 14th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Energy, Iran, Russia, Unhelpful, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gazprom is a busy beaver these days. First Libya, then Iran. This probably falls under the strategic unhelpfulness category.
From the article:
A few days after French oil giant Total withdrew from its planned multi-billion dollar gas investment project in Iran, Russia’s Gazprom is entering the market in a multi-billion-dollar deal.
Gazprom’s Chief Executive Alexei Miller met on [...]

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Gazprom Keeps the Heat on Europe by Pressing Libya

Posted by Matt in July 13th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Energy, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

This is example of Russian energy mercantilism. Russia locks up energy resources from other countries and takes it off the world market. Russia gains power at the expense of other countries.
From the article:
OAO Gazprom, Russia’s state- sponsored gas monopoly, is offering to buy all of Libya’s oil and gas exports in a bid to increase [...]

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Russia and China: Natural Partners?

Posted by Matt in July 7th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in China, Energy, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China is facing a strategic decision in choosing its partners for energy trade. This sector is a key one for the fastest developing economy in the world. China’s energy consumption will grow considerably, while its own oil and gas sector is not developing fast enough to keep up with the growing needs. Russia is trying [...]

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Who runs the world?

Posted by Matt in July 3rd, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Economy, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The post-war global institutions have largely worked well. But rising countries and growing threats are challenging their pre-eminence.
That is how many outsiders, not just in the poor world, will see the summit that takes place from July 7th to 9th of the G8, the closest the world has to an informal (ie, self-appointed) steering group. [...]

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Wanted: Skilled Workers for a Growing Economy in Brazil

Posted by Matt in July 2nd, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Brazil, Economy, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

If you’re looking for a job then head to Brazil. That’s where the action is.
From the article:
The engineering shortage here is spreading across industries. The lack of civil and construction engineers threatens infrastructure projects; areas like banking, aircraft manufacture, petrochemicals and metals are all competing for the same top graduates. In the booming oil and [...]

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China securing access to Middle East oil

Posted by Matt in June 22nd, 2008 | no comment 
Published in China, Middle East, Oil, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Dubai recently announced its partnership with China in the creation of a billion dollar investment fund. Saudi commitment to double oil exports to China by 2010. These two announcements exemplify China’s Middle East energy strategy: to entrench itself economically in the region, even at a loss, so as to obtain the political leverage required to [...]

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Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict

Posted by Matt in May 9th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Oil, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The number of oil-producer-based conflicts is likely to grow in the future as stratospheric prices of crude oil push more countries in the developing world to produce oil and gas. In 2001, the Bush administration’s energy task force hailed the emergence of new producers as a chance for the United States to diversify the sources [...]

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The Curse of Oil Wealth

Posted by Matt in May 9th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Oil, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

And the correlation between oil and violence is likely to grow stronger, since as Ross points out, countries in Africa, the Caspian basin, and Southeast Asia will soon become “significant oil and gas exporters. Some of these countries, including Chad, East Timor, and Myanmar, have already suffered internal strife. Most of the rest are poor, [...]

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Dying Russia

Posted by Matt in April 26th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Demographics, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Russia’s brutally high levels of mortality, along with anemic fertility levels, fashion a second “exceptional” demographic trend for the country: depopulation. In the 16-plus years since the end of the U.S.S.R., Russia has recorded over 12 million more deaths than births. Net immigration has only partially compensated for this deficit. Consequently, Russia’s population dropped from [...]

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