UK Economic and Debt Crisis Approaches Dangerous Tipping Point

Posted by Matt in March 15th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Financial, Cataclysm, Debt Crisis, Economic Crisis, Elites, Matter Of Time, Political Establishment, Precipice, Probability, Sinks, Sovereign Debt, Sustainable Solution, Tipping Point, United States

It seems to this observer that it is only a matter of time before the UK sinks into an irreversible sovereign debt cataclysm, with the United States not far behind. Anyone who believes that the same political establishment and financial elites that have led both nations to this hellish fiscal precipice can now lead us [...]

Is this Israel’s calm before the storm? – The Globe and Mail

Posted by Matt in February 6th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Israel, assad, Avigdor Lieberman, Calm Before The Storm, Clashes, Deadlock, Flare, Globe And Mail, Globe Mail, Intelligence Assessment, Intifada, Israeli Cities, Israeli Foreign Minister, Likelihood, Neighbors, Nuclear War, Observers, Palestinians, Probability, Sabre Rattling, Syrian Officials

2010 might be calm, but 2011 won’t. I anticipate that 2011 will bring nuclear war to the Middle East as Israel’s neighbors launch a preemptive attack to destroy Israel once and for all.
There might be a Third Intifada with the Palestinians, but it’s hard to know when this could occur. It could be 2010 or [...]

U.S. General wants Muslim men to be strip-searched at airports

Posted by Matt in January 4th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Terrorism, airplane, Airports, Blow, Fox News, Iran, Lieutenant General, Military Analyst, Muslim Men, Policy Committee, Probability, Raw Story, Strip Search, Terrorist Attack, Thomas Mcinerney, United States Air Force

A former U.S. General and a member of the Iran Policy Committee said on Saturday that he wants all Muslim men between 18 and 28 to be strip-searched at airports.
Speaking on Fox News over the weekend, retired Lieutenant General with the United States Air Force and Fox News Military Analyst, Thomas McInerney, urged the US [...]

Weston: U.S. Israel Will Stop Iranian Bomb

Posted by Matt in December 30th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Iran, Israel, Allies, Bomb, Bush Doctrine, Conclusion, History Professor, Independent, Iran, Israel, Israel And The Middle East, Michael Weston, Newsmax, Nuclear Weapons, Probability, Retaliation, United States

Weston says that any attack by israel on Iran will be with the blessing of the United States. If Iran and its allies retaliate against Israel and the Middle East literally blows up, who do you think is going to be blamed?
If you are subsequently thinking about retaliation against Israel, who else is going to [...]

Forecast 2010: Global threat assessment 2010

Posted by Matt in December 29th, 2009 | 1 comment

Published in Forecasts, China, Economy, Global Conditions, Global Threat, Gold, Middle East, Money, Probability, Term Debt, Threat Assessment, Treasury, Trillion, Us Government

The year 2009 was not an easy time. Do not expect global conditions to be much better in 2010. In fact, there is a high probability that things economically and politically will become even more problematic.
Focus will be on the US economy and there is very little indication that the situation is going to improve [...]

Nuclear weapons: The modernization myth | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Posted by Matt in December 21st, 2009 | 2 comments

Published in Nuclear, Alliances, Big Mistake, Bottom Line, Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists, Chinese Leaders, Combat Readiness, Dangerous Period, Dangerous Trends, Decline, History Today, Joke, Kingston, Modernization, Myth, Next Five Years, Nuclear Arsenal, Nuclear Attack, Nuclear War, Nuclear Weapons, Ottoman Empire, Probability, Reif, Russians, Time Train, Underground Bunkers

Nice try Kingston Reif, but you are likely to get yourself killed and take the rest of us with you. Here are my thoughts:
1. It is not the that the U.S. is behind today, it is the trend that will put us close enough or within range in a few years. This trend includes the [...]

How to Remain a Great Power | Foreign Policy

Posted by Matt in November 20th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Geopolitical, Circumstances, Combat Readiness, Constantinople, Decades, Edward Luttwak, Foreign Policy, Grand Strategy, Intelligence, Mentality, Probability, Texts, Time Train, United States

I’ve spent the past two decades poring over these texts to compile a study of Byzantine grand strategy. The United States would do well to heed the following seven lessons if it wishes to remain a great power:
I. Avoid war by every possible means, in all possible circumstances, but always act as if war might [...]

Destination U.S. – Do you like a lot of pain and suffering?

Posted by Matt in November 7th, 2009 | 1 comment

Published in Economy, Ahead, Banks, Choices, Chrysler, Computer Model, Critical State, Decade, Economic Options, Financial Crisis, Forest Fires, Game, Geologists, Global Financial Crisis, Gm, Gold, Gold Standard, Good Options, Match, Payback, Probability, Seedlings, Squares, Supercritical State, Trees

We as a country have made a lot of bad choices over the past decade. We’ve acted like irresponsible children and payback is coming. All of the good options are now gone. The only economic options left go from bad to really bad.
There are several options that we have in the future. One of the [...]

What if Israel strikes Iran from the air? – Washington Times

Posted by Matt in October 22nd, 2009 | 1 comment

Published in Iran, Israel, iaf, Iran Air, Iranian Leaders, Israel, Israeli Population, Missile Defenses, Missile Force, Population Centers, Population Israel, Probability, Range Ballistic Missiles, Washington Times

But to Israel it must appear the world does not take very seriously two famous words – “never again!”
When the IAF attacks, Iranian leaders have promised to unleash their missile force. Some intermediate-range ballistic missiles have a high probability of getting through anti-missile defenses and hitting Israeli population centers.
TIMPERLAKE: What if Israel strikes Iran [...]

The Mathematics of War

Posted by Matt in October 15th, 2009 | no comment

Published in War, Aln, Conflict, Discovery, Earthquakes, Fry, International Wars, Iraq War, Lewis Fry Richardson, Magnitude, Mathematics, Natural Logarithm, Physicist, Power Law Distribution, Probability, Richter Scale, Slope, War Video

In the video below Sean Gourely gives a talk about how the Iraq war and war in general follows the power law:
P(x) = Cx^-a
x = Number killed or size of attack (war)
P(x) = Probability that an attack (war) of size x or less will occur.
ln(P(x)) = ln(C) – aln(x)
ln = Natural Logarithm
If you plot this [...]