utin has pledged that this is only the beginning. He and his advisers know well that attacks on corruption are popular with the public. They are counting on the campaign to shore up support after the protests and to mobilize Putin’s supporters. What the Kremlin is neglecting, however, is that the campaign could be a double-edged sword that ultimately delegitimizes the regime, as Putin’s own acolytes are swept out while the government’s house is cleaned.
Putin faces a critical moment and is at risk of losing his sway over the elites.FROM GORBACHEV TO PUTIN
The fate of Mikhail Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign in the last years of the Soviet Union should have provided a warning. …
Tag Archives: Protests
Putin’s Self-Destruction | Foreign Affairs
Posted by Matt
on June 16, 2013
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South China Sea row risks wider clashes
Posted by Matt
on June 10, 2013
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From January through May, the South China Sea dispute continued to trend in a negative direction. Consistent with the pattern of developments over the past several years, the dispute continued to be characterized by an action-reaction dynamic in which attempts by one or other of the claimants – most notably, China, the Philippines and Vietnam – to uphold its territorial or jurisdictional claims led to protests and countermoves from the other claimants.
Although the United Nations appointed a panel of judges to examine a Philippine legal challenge to China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, and tentative steps were taken by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to begin talks on a code of conduct (CoC), there was little optimism that either of these processes would reduce tensions in the short term or provide an environment conductive to a resolution of the problem in the medium to long term.
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Conclusion
Despite agreement by ASEAN and China to initiate talks on a CoC, developments in the first half of 2013 demonstrated that the overall trajectory of the South China Sea dispute keeps moving in the wrong direction. So long as the actions of the principal actors continue to be motivated by nationalist rhetoric, an unwillingness to compromise sovereignty claims and competition over access to maritime resources, there is little prospect that this trend will be reversed any time soon.
Asia Times Online :: South China Sea row risks wider clashes
The India vs. China Border Standoff: Lessons Learned
Posted by Matt
on June 9, 2013
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A pattern can be deciphered: Gradually trespass into an area of interest over a period of time and set a routine that evades notice and serious attention thus avoiding any significant protest or challenge. Down play protests or apprehensions if any. Exploit unchallenged border encroachments as an opportunity to consolidate position and stake a claim to the area at an appropriate moment through precipitous military coercion and intimidation. On close evaluation this pattern can be discerned in the construction of dams across Brahmaputra.
RealClearWorld – The India vs. China Border Standoff: Lessons Learned
Israeli expert says military coup possible in Turkey
Posted by Matt
on June 5, 2013
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The ongoing unrest in Turkey may lead to a new military coup in that country, Israeli political expert Avigdor Eskin told ArmInfo. The expert believes that Turkey is changing its image these days. Even if Prime Minister Erdogan manages to suppress the wave of protests, they will have a crucial role in the history for the former Ottoman Empire.
“I witnessed the overthrow of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania, then the public unrest in Russia in 1991 and 1993. The scales are incomparable. Turkish dissidents managed to awaken the entire city. No spontaneous speeches for the authorities. A silent majority of people went into the streets protesting against extreme forms of Islamism. They do not favor Erdogan’s aggressive behavior and country manners either. Actually, the entire creative class protests against Erdogan’s regime. Students, intellectuals, businessmen and artists have come together on the same side of the fence,” he said.
Eskin thinks that Erdogan is so far losing with every new day of protest that involves more and more people and shakes once strong positions of the authorities.
Arminfo: Israeli expert says military coup possible in Turkey
China’s revolution likely to come from economic crisis – The Japan Daily Press
Posted by Matt
on May 14, 2013
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As the ongoing territorial row between Japan and China continues with no end in sight, the nations’ joint economy is often said to be the greatest victim. With many Japanese companies, most notably in the auto industry, pulling their manufacturing operations out of China and moving to other locations in Asia, so as not to get caught up in political tensions, many say that China still holds too many of the economic cards, what with its lockdown on producing so many of the world’s goods. But one analyst believes China may see a revolution in the next 10 years, triggered not with violence and weapons, but rather an economic deterioration.
China’s revolution likely to come from economic crisis – The Japan Daily Press
What does “within 10 years” mean? It doesn’t mean 10 years from now. It could be 10 years, but it could also be a few years from now. One bad sign indicating it is closer is the number of protests each year.
Grim report warns Canada vulnerable to an aboriginal insurrection | Full Comment | National Post
Posted by Matt
on May 2, 2013
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Canada’s relations with its aboriginal people are also at a crossroads but, fortunately, one of the potential paths forward promises a more auspicious outcome than Mr. Allen’s doomsday scenario.
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A more pessimistic report, by Douglas Bland, suggests that Canada has all the necessary “feasibility” conditions for a violent native uprising — social fault lines; a large “warrior cohort”; an economy vulnerable to sabotage; a reluctance on the part of governments and security forces to confront aboriginal protests; and a sparsely populated country reliant on poorly defended key infrastructure like rail and electricity lines.
Grim report warns Canada vulnerable to an aboriginal insurrection | Full Comment | National Post
Japanese and Chinese Boats Converge on Contested Islands – NYTimes.com
Posted by Matt
on April 23, 2013
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Festering tensions between Japan and China flared anew on Tuesday as Beijing and Tokyo sent vessels to monitor a flotilla of boats carrying Japanese nationalists that sailed near islands in the East China Sea that both nations claim as their own.
The episode was the latest in a potentially dangerous dance being played out over the islands, which Japan nationalized last September, igniting anti-Japanese protests in China.
Japanese and Chinese Boats Converge on Contested Islands – NYTimes.com
Revolution in China: Slowing growth could cause more internal instability
Posted by Matt
on April 18, 2013
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For years, the conventional wisdom about China’s GDP was this: if the country didn’t meet its target of 8 percent annualized growth, political instability would result. The reasoning behind this wisdom is pretty simple: the Chinese Communist Party, having long ago forfeited its ideological legitimacy, depends solely on providing economic growth in order to stay in power. So long as enough people prosper, they’ll put up with a fair amount of repression and corruption. But as soon as economic growth slows, China could be in for a rude awakening.
Has the time come? …Should China Worry About a GDP Slowdown? – Matt Schiavenza – The Atlantic
Is a revolution in China going to happen today? Of course not. What this means is that the probability of a revolution starts to increase. Chinese leaders will be sweating a little more. There will be more protests. But this could go on for a number of years. Or it could spiral out of control soon if an incident sets off the people. Nobody really knows, and most of all the Chinese leaders don’t really know either. That’s where the sweating comes in.
If you are a Chinese leader, then you need a plan B: Getting much of your money and family out of the country if it is feasible. Obviously, this won’t work for leaders who are too high up.
Maine setting standard for EMP defense
Posted by Matt
on February 25, 2013
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Among other things, the plan would require anyone receiving a certificate of public convenience and necessity before the Public Utilities Commission for building transmission lines to include design measures to limit electromagnetic field levels and ensure the protection of the transmission and distribution system against damage from an electromagnetic pulse or geomagnetic storm.
In one of the more controversial sections, the legislation would require that any transmission line currently under construction would need to incorporate those types of protections, an idea that drew the protests of utilities in the state and region.
But in a recent all-day session, the committee heard from experts on EMP who said a natural EMP event from a geomagnetic superstorm is one of only eight “black swan” events that could change the course of civilization.
