Now Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, has returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remains impressive. There were 77 countries under consideration, and 49 of them were in recession in 2009. Economists – as reflected in the averages published in a report called Consensus Forecasts – [...]
The eurozone may be growing again but, in any meaningful sense, an economy in which most people’s incomes are below their pre-2008 levels is still in recession
Five years later, while some are congratulating themselves on avoiding another depression, no one in Europe or the United States can claim that prosperity has returned. The [...]
About half of the 22 economists surveyed by CNNMoney say a recession will be unavoidable if Congress fails to raise the nation’s debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cashlater this month.
A couple more say a recession is possible depending on how far past the deadline Congress goes before acting. [...]
Jagannathan, along with Mudit Kapoor of the Indian School of Business and Ernst Schaumburg of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, argues that the financial crisis that gripped the US was primarily a symptom of ongoing major changes afoot in the world. Globalization has created massive shifts in the labor supply in developing countries—and [...]
You think we have it bad, caught between a stagnant economy and gridlocked politics? Then take a trip to Europe, where the economy is going not sideways but backward — and the politics are too.
Europe’s numbers should be familiar by now, but they’re still awful. In the United States, President Obama’s much-derided stimulus package [...]
2– Another bad omen: collapsing silver prices
Unfortunately, it’s not as if, lately, equity markets have been the only place to lose money. Indeed, as every gold bug has rediscovered in recent months, precious metals have again proven that they are anything but a safe-haven. Still, drops of 30% or more in silver prices do [...]
US GDP has been slowly ramping up, only to fall back and then try once more to bring us back to the ’90s. Stocks markets are volatile but seemingly moving higher in most of the developed world, except for Japan, where the current 20% drop comes hard on the heels of one of their frequent [...]
“One of the biggest economic bubbles in history is now about to go into the Minsky masher,” writes Edwards. This refers to periods of speculation that lead to crisis, and was named after economist Hyman Minsky who wrote about the inherent instability of bull markets.
“Make no mistake – the Australian tide is [...]
Since Surkov’s departure from the presidential staff, veterans of the spy and security agencies and other conservatives known as the “siloviki”, or men of power, have gained the upper hand in shaping Putin’s thinking and are behind what the opposition sees as a Soviet-style clampdown on dissent.
Putin has in the past [...]
Here’s your happy thought of the day from SocGen strategist Albert Edwards:
Over the last 15 years most investors have refused to contemplate that events in the West are playing out in a similar fashion to Japan in the 1990s. But the latest inflation data out of both the US and eurozone should [...]