To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to fail to forecast a few recessions may be misfortune, to fail to forecast nearly all of them seems like carelessness. Do forecasters simply not update their forecasts often enough to be alert to the onset of recessions? That simple possible explanation turns out not to be true. As shown in [...]
Every big financial crisis has its own defining characteristics, but both in origin and consequence, such implosions tend to be remarkably similar. In virtually every case, you first see a long period of excess in financial risk-taking, where credit spirals out of control. This ultimately proves unsustainable, and in the resulting bust the process of [...]
China’s massive bank financed stimulus was intended to keep the economy moving. It may instead lead to economic disaster.
Flooding the economy with trillions of yuan in new loans did accomplish the principal objective of the Chinese government — maintaining high economic growth in the midst of a global recession. While Beijing earned plaudits [...]
“Recessions are a natural economic feature and their regular occurrence is healthy and indeed essential,” is how Deutsche’s Jim Reid introduces his investigation into post-Fed un-natural business cycles. Without them there is a serious danger of bubbles and the misallocation of resources as the further market participants detach themselves from the last downturn the more [...]
Until flaws in the euro are addressed, the crisis is likely to simmer on
Spain’s banks are in a world of trouble, as you’ve undoubtedly heard. They are strained by loans made over the course of a a building boom that went bust in 2008, two recessions in the last three years, and the highest [...]
Unless leaders in Europe act quickly, the financial crisis there could drag down the global economy and kill what appears to be a “fragile, extremely uneven” recovery, the multi-national Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned today.
In a stark report calling for action aimed at boosting and shoring up Europe’s economies, [...]
All the good news (low inflation, high employment, rising stock and real estate prices) drove economic growth. Between 1982 and 2007, there were only two mild recessions. The economy seemed less risky. Economists announced the Great Moderation of business cycles.
Booms become busts because justifiable confidence becomes foolish optimism. So it was. Believing the world [...]
An exclusive conversation with Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer on the toll of war with Iran — and why China and Russia just don’t care anymore what the United States thinks of them.
It’s a mixed bag these days. Europe appears to have arrested its fall into the abyss and the U.S. economy is finally [...]
Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, released a startling chart comparing the current slump with past recessions and recoveries. It turns out that by one important measure — changes in real G.D.P. since the recession began — Britain is doing worse this time than it did during [...]
Capitalism needs a fundamental overhaul. That capitalism is somehow broken has become one of Davos’ most persistent themes.
The Arab Spring must end happily. Representatives from the revolutionary movements that recently toppled regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are among the stars of this panel.
The Eurozone crisis will continue to muddle along, but muddling [...]