“The weapons given to Hezbollah will change the balance of power,” he said.
“We have in recent days done extensive operations for reconnaissance on Israel’s central and sensitive military and infrastructural installations in different areas and also on Israel’s commando posts and peacekeeping forces in the Golan Heights,” he said, “to prepare for the coming battle with the occupying regime.”
The commander revealed some of the weapons given by Syria to Hezbollah, including Pantsir (SA-22 Greyhound) surface-to-air missiles, SAM 5 surface-to-air missiles and the Russian anti-tank Kornet missiles. However, the commander also hinted that soon Hezbollah will receive the advanced and dreaded ship-killer Yakhont missiles from Assad.
Tag Archives: Regime
The question is – what will happen next time? Assad has apparently not given up on his plan to supply Hezbollah with “deterrence diminishing” weapons as a reward for the Shiite group’s assistance in his regime’s battle for survival. Assad also wants Hezbollah to safeguard his strategic weapons systems so they will not fall into rebel hands.
This is why the West estimates Israel will apparently be forced to attack – perhaps in the near future – additional arms shipments making their way from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. It is also estimated that Assad would have to respond, despite the fact that he has almost no effective retaliation options. The Syrian army, in its current state, cannot attack us on the ground, and if it fires missiles toward Israel’s home front, Israel will destroy most of the Assad regime’s military assets, and other assets, which are crucial for its continued survival.
A senior Israeli official signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering further military strikes on Syria to stop the transfer of advanced weapons to Islamic militants, and he warned the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that his government would face crippling consequences if it retaliated against Israel.
“If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official said, “he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”
If the Arab Spring was more or less the start of a forest fire, then its spreading to Israel will be a game-changer. Now it will involve two different civilizations each backed by one or more major powers. This is how great-power wars are started.
I suspect that the next Israeli attack will bring on a major response from Syria and its allies.
Iran on Wednesday issued war-like declarations against Israel, calling for volunteers to fight for Syria’s regime and vowing to turn the Golan Heights into a “Fatahland.”
The threats came via a Hezbollah newspaper that cited Iranian officials, Ynet News reported. Despite the aggressive tone, the paper reported that Iranian officials are more intent on halting future Israeli attacks on Syria, rather than declaring all-out war.
Still, one message was clear: Iran is calling for fighters to target the Golan region, dominated by Israelis.
“Syria has its hands full, but I’m surprised the regime hasn’t attacked Israel already as a way of deflecting attention to the common Israeli enemy,” Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow and director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Stein Program on Counter-terrorism and Intelligence, and the former deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the US Department of the Treasury, told The Jerusalem Post.
“As for Iran and Hezbollah, they’re already at full tilt in a shadow war against Israel and the West,” he said.
A move to deflect the focus from the Syrian battle to the Israeli front could provide relief for the constant media and international attention that has been focused on the Syrian conflict.
At the same time, Hezbollah and Syria know they would pay severely for any direct attack on Israel, but how much longer can they absorb Israeli attacks without responding?
Speaking in an exclusive interview with Arutz Sheva, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, said that the situation with Iran “is very perilous” because the regime “is close to achieving its twenty year long objective of getting nuclear weapons.”
“I don’t think the economic sanctions have slowed the program down at all and I think that unless the United States or Israel takes military action that Iran will get nuclear weapons,” Bolton told Arutz Sheva.
“This is a very undesirable situation to be in and the choices are not good…,” he added.
The prominent pro-democracy and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny is currently standing trial on trumped-up charges. In a recent interview, Navalny recognized that he will be tried in a kangaroo court, found guilty and most likely imprisoned, as will many other regime opponents: “Ether they will imprison us, or we will overthrow them. Or, most likely, they will first imprison us, and later we will overthrow them anyway. We will go into prison and then out. The system can hardly survive more than two years” (http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2013/04/15_a_5256529.shtml). While Obama is trying without much success to placate Putin, a revolution in Russia—due to growing discontent, bureaucratic squabbles and economic stagnation—is increasingly becoming accepted as inevitable (http://borisakunin.livejournal.com/97577.html).
The most significant geopolitical events of the past half century have been unanticipated. Not that we did not expect them, but they were supposed to happen in the distant future, not now. The North Korean regime could collapse in the same unexpected way, leaving shocked politicians, diplomats, and pundits to fend with its consequences.
While it is comforting to believe that predictable rational calculation and self interest determine the course of human events, the timing of the most significant changes in the world order is heavily influenced by chance, personalities, emotions, and miscalculations. We expect the two Koreas to muddle along in a shaky equilibrium that will result in the end of the Hermit Kingdom in the distant future. A collapse of the North Korean regime in the near term would send pundits in vain searches of past writings for hints they saw it coming.
Iran has announced that it will open two new uranium-processing facilities on Tuesday as Western efforts to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear program ended in failure last week.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is preparing to inaugurate the “Saghand uranium complex near the Central city of Ardakan and Shahid Rezayeenejad Yellow Cake production facility” on Tuesday to mark the regime’s “National Day of Nuclear Technology,” according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.
Israel fears that the area – largely quiet for almost 40 years despite the continued formal state of war between the two countries – is becoming a “hot border”. The Syrian Golan is now mostly in the hands of opposition forces, with large numbers of regime troops being redeployed to other battlefronts in recent weeks. But, say Israel and western military analysts, the presence of Islamist jihadists among the opposition forces is strong.
“We are seeing terror organisations gaining footholds increasingly in the territory,” said Lt Gen Benny Gantz, Israel’s military chief, last week. “For now, they are fighting Assad. Guess what? We’re next in line.”