Tag Archives: Retaliation

Lebanon threatens retaliation against future Syrian attacks | The Times of Israel

Lebanese army officials issued a stark warning to the Syrian government Wednesday, stating that any further attack by Syrian forces on sites across the border will be immediately met with a forceful response. The comments came after a Syrian government helicopter fired three missiles on the northern Lebanese border town of Arsal earlier Wednesday.

“Army units deployed in the [Arsal] area took the necessary defensive measures to respond immediately to any similar violations,” read the Lebanese army’s official statement.

Lebanon threatens retaliation against future Syrian attacks | The Times of Israel

It looks like Lebanon has some stability issues. Shiite Muslims (Hezbollah) are helping Syria, and Sunni Muslims are helping the rebels.

Scenario: The night Israel decides to attack Syria again

Even more serious, say the experts, is that Syria is liable to decide to transfer these modern missiles to Hezbollah, or even give a sample of them to its partner, Iran, whose scientists are eager to decipher Russian technologies. Intelligence officials and air force commanders will pressure the ministers to attack quickly and thus exploit this opportunity. The information, they’ll say, is temporary and fluid: If we don’t take action now, there’s no way of knowing where Hezbollah will hide these missiles in Lebanon later on. It’s important to prevent a change in the military equation in the north with weapons that “break the balance of power.”

All these are certainly threats that cannot be dismissed. But if the ministers approve such a move, Israel could be a step away from war with both Syria and Hezbollah, even though its rivals have even less of an interest in such a military confrontation than Israel does.

This scenario is not totally divorced from reality. According to foreign media reports, this is more or less what preceded the second air strike (of the three this year) attributed to Israel, which took place in late April.

From here one can assess with a great degree of certainty that there will be additional attempts to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah in the coming months.

That’s the background to the long series of Israeli warnings ­ from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and his predecessor Ehud Barak ­ that Israel will act to foil the smuggling of quality weapons into Lebanon.

Scenario: The night Israel decides to attack Syria again

If Israel attacks Syria again then I think we are looking at major retaliation coming from Syria and Hezbollah. I think Syria will decide when this scenario happens as it attempts to transfer advanced weapons to Hezbollah.

There is an excellent possibility of war happening at any time. We could see a delay of weeks or months but the credible possibility exists right now.

 

New U.S. weapons have China worried | Opinion | The Japan Times

Writing on the China-U.S. Focus website on April 22, Major Gen. Yao Yunzhu, director of China-America Defense Relations at the Chinese Armed Forces Academy of Military Science, said that Chinese concerns stemmed from two facts:

• The ballistic missile defense systems that the U.S. and its allies had deployed, or were planning to deploy, in the Asia-Pacific region could intercept residue Chinese nuclear weapons launched for retaliation after China had been attacked, thus potentially negating the deterrence effect of the Chinese nuclear arsenal.

• The U.S. was developing a series of conventional strategic strike capabilities. When deployed, they could be used to hit China’s nuclear arsenal.

New U.S. weapons have China worried | Opinion | The Japan Times

Nuclear Weapons: How Few Is Too Few? – Forbes

Let’s hope this latest effort to limit nuclear weapons turns out better than Obama’s gun-control initiatives in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook tragedy.  However, there is good reason to believe it won’t, and for much the same reason that the National Rifle Association says gun control is a bad idea: if guns are illegal, then only criminals will have guns.  What’s the connection?  I’ll come back to that later, but first let me tell you a little bit about the Obama worldview.

[My comment: If you eliminate your nukes and your enemy cheats, then only your enemy will have nuclear weapons.]

Some supporters of nuclear disarmament describe our current approach to nuclear strategy as a failure of imagination that one day could lead to unprecedented catastrophe (proponents of missile defense often say the same thing).  However, it may be that what the Obama Administration has failed to imagine in its strategic calculations is just how bad the global situation might become if Russia’s next leader is a neo-fascist, or China decides to pursue regional hegemony.  There’s no way of knowing for sure when our efforts to shrink the nuclear arsenal cross the invisible line into greater vulnerability, but it may be we are already there today.

Nuclear Weapons: How Few Is Too Few? – Forbes

“There’s no way of knowing for sure when our efforts to shrink the nuclear arsenal cross the invisible line into greater vulnerability, but it may be we are already there today.”

We’ve already crossed the line. Here is the problem: Everybody assumes that our enemies are never willing to absorb one nuclear strike in retaliation. In one retaliatory nuclear strike the enemy’s leaders can survive, but the people take a hit. Would enemy leaders ever accept this?

What if enemy leaders are afraid of revolution? That means if they do nothing then they might die.

What if enemy leaders are afraid of stumbling into a nuclear war with the US? If they do nothing then they might die.

A US that can only retaliate one time might be a tempting target (right now) if given the right excuse. All other options for these leaders might be worse. Yes, their people take a hit, but the leaders will survive. And when was the last time totalitarian leaders put the people before themselves?

Finally, underground bunkers can ensure the survival of militaries and a few million citizens. Also, one might expect that around 90% to 95% of the population will die in a nuclear war. That still leaves 5% to 10% surviving. In China that is still a big number.

The key to preventing this is the ability to retaliate many times over many years. Then the leaders know that they themselves cannot survive.

Do you think that people who just experienced a massive crisis (World War II) just might have more wisdom about national security than a people who have never experienced one?

Will Israel destroy Russian missiles? – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews

The question is – what will happen next time? Assad has apparently not given up on his plan to supply Hezbollah with “deterrence diminishing” weapons as a reward for the Shiite group’s assistance in his regime’s battle for survival. Assad also wants Hezbollah to safeguard his strategic weapons systems so they will not fall into rebel hands.

This is why the West estimates Israel will apparently be forced to attack – perhaps in the near future – additional arms shipments making their way from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. It is also estimated that Assad would have to respond, despite the fact that he has almost no effective retaliation options. The Syrian army, in its current state, cannot attack us on the ground, and if it fires missiles toward Israel’s home front, Israel will destroy most of the Assad regime’s military assets, and other assets, which are crucial for its continued survival.

Will Israel destroy Russian missiles? – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews

Iran threatens response to alleged Israeli strike in Syria | JPost | Israel News

The paper quotes Iranian sources as saying the response to Israel’s alleged strikes will be made on two levels. The first being “blows under the belt in several locations,” which could be done inside Syria under the policy of “contain, squeeze and crush,” or outside of it, while maintaining the “terror balance.”

The second possible way of response will be calling a meeting of “the friends of the Syrian people” in Tehran in two weeks, in which Iran will “announce a new initiative for a Syrian solution.” More than 40 countries will be invited, and President Assad will be represented by ministers Ali Haidar and Qadri Jamil.

Iran threatens response to alleged Israeli strike in Syria | JPost | Israel News

Two weeks from today is May 23rd. This meeting could be significant. We could see a major retaliation against Israel after May 23rd.

Israel’s Three Gambles | Foreign Policy

Can Israel get away with its attacks on the Syrian regime?

Israel’s recent attacks against Syria are the latest, dramatic development in a conflict that is already spiraling out of control. In the past few days, Israeli aircraft reportedly targeted Iranian surface-to-surface missiles headed for Hezbollah, as well as Syrian missiles in a military base in the outskirts of Damascus. Israel’s strikes show, once again, its intelligence services’ ability to penetrate the Iran’s arms shipment route to Lebanon and its military’s skill in striking adversaries with seeming impunity. But Israel is also risking retaliation and further destabilization of its own neighborhood — in ways that may come back to haunt it.

Israel’s Three Gambles – By Daniel Byman and Natan Sachs | Foreign Policy

Contemplating Syria, Hezbollah retaliation | JPost | Israel News

“Syria has its hands full, but I’m surprised the regime hasn’t attacked Israel already as a way of deflecting attention to the common Israeli enemy,” Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow and director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Stein Program on Counter-terrorism and Intelligence, and the former deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the US Department of the Treasury, told The Jerusalem Post.

“As for Iran and Hezbollah, they’re already at full tilt in a shadow war against Israel and the West,” he said.

A move to deflect the focus from the Syrian battle to the Israeli front could provide relief for the constant media and international attention that has been focused on the Syrian conflict.

At the same time, Hezbollah and Syria know they would pay severely for any direct attack on Israel, but how much longer can they absorb Israeli attacks without responding?

Contemplating Syria, Hezbollah retaliation | JPost | Israel News

Iran, Syria prep retaliation for Israeli airstrikes

Iran has instructed the Al Quds unit of the Revolutionary Guard to prepare a response to Israel’s reported airstrikes Sunday and Friday against Syrian targets, according to informed Middle Eastern security officials.

The officials, speaking to WND, said Syria and Iran are determined to respond to the Israeli strikes. The officials said the retaliation may not be launched from Syrian territory but instead could come in the form of a terrorist attack against Israelis in Africa or South America.

Iran, Syria prep retaliation for Israeli airstrikes

Israeli attack on Iran would trigger world war III: diplomat – Tehran Times

The Iranian Ambassador to France, Ali Ahani, has said that in case Israel attacks Iran, there would be catastrophic consequences that can lead to third world war. 

In an interview with Geo-economy published on Thursday, Ahani said, “Israel is constantly talking about Iranian threat, and is making efforts to convince the United States and Europe to harden their policy towards Iran and our nuclear program.” 
 
He added that it would be a sheer madness by Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, because Iran would not stay inactive. 

Israeli attack on Iran would trigger world war III: diplomat – Tehran Times

The Iranian Ambassador to France does not explain the mechansim leading to World War III. The real reason World War III is a possibility is that Iran has the backing of Russia and China. Both Russia and China have suggested that they will protect Iran. So a western attack on Iran implies retaliation on America by Russia and China.

I go into a lot more detail about this issue in the following article: Implied Nuclear Threat from Russia: Russia says would be threatened by Iran military action. This covers both Russia and China.

The big question is – why isn’t the current US administration getting ready for nuclear war? Because it doesn’t believe Russia and China. I guess preparing just as a precaution is asking too much.