According to a recent report from Nomura Securities, China ”is displaying the same three symptoms that Japan, the US, and parts of Europe all showed before suffering financial crises, that is, a rapid build-up of leverage, elevated property prices, and a decline in potential growth.”
The catch with these sorts of scenarios is that one [...]
The Philippine Navy is substantially inferior to the emerging blue-water Chinese navy and lacks the capability to defend its presence on Second Thomas Shoal in the event that China is determined to dislodge its marines. Nevertheless, Manila may put up a fight. The potential for a military skirmish between the two [...]
Most polls show that Venezuela’s government candidate Nicolás Maduro is likely to win Sunday’s elections thanks to an unfair election process in which the government controls an overwhelming share of TV time, but — even if he wins — Maduro’s future is gloomy.
If most polls are right and Maduro wins despite a significant narrowing [...]
In one of the more alarming scenarios, analysts estimate that Iran—using only declared nuclear material and declared sites for uranium enrichment—already has the technical potential to produce nuclear explosive material for its first nuclear weapon in a matter of a few months. What’s worse, if Iran has undeclared sites for uranium enrichment, analysts [...]
The study, entitled “In the Dark: Military Planning for a Catastrophic Critical Infrastructure Event,” concluded that there in fact is “very little” in the way of back-up capability to the electric grid upon which the communications infrastructure is vitally dependent.
The study pointed out that likely scenarios caused by solar storms and EMP forecast a [...]
As President Barack Obama begins his second term in office, China poses a major policy challenge to the United States largely because of the unpredictable trajectory of both China’s domestic transformation and foreign relations. While there has been much attention paid to China’s rapid economic rise and growing international clout, two other scenarios have been [...]
One of the instruments for doing so is history, as discussed. But there also is a perceptible universal trend to events that cuts across borders. Last fall, we told you about the 11 indicators of energy and geopolitics (here are the original 10; here is the 11th, added in November). Now, [...]
The projection of the future of the South China Sea is structured along six key determinants of stability. The six drivers are first, the presence of a hegemonic power that has the capacity and incentive to create a stable order, second, the equal distribution of military power and avoidance of overly aggressive behavior, third, the [...]
What are those dire scenarios? The report gives a list of eight “Black Swan” scenarios — a reference to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “Black Swan,” which posits that history is built on unforeseeable, surprise events.
Global Trends 2030′s potential Black Swans
1. Severe Pandemic
Yet a growing number of China watchers have been raising the alarm that all is not well in the world’s second-largest economy. Indeed, any discussion of China these days would be far more foresighted to focus on the growing challenges and potential dangers that the new leadership is facing. The implications of China experiencing an [...]