Recently, it seems no developing country is safe from sudden, unexpected protests. In Brazil and Turkey, empowered middle classes pushed back against perceived governmental injustice; protests erupted, and leaders’ approval ratings dropped precipitously. In Egypt, the economic picture was as ugly as [...]
So what exactly is in it for a young person in Greece, Italy, Spain, or apparently even France to stay home? Increasingly not a lot other than avoiding the difficulty involved in moving to another country far from home where the culture, language, etc. are different. That’s a daunting challenge to be sure, especially in [...]
It may look innocuous, but this tiny lead ball is thought to have triggered a rebellion that saw millions of Russians die and gave rise to the world’s first communist state.
When the ball of shot narrowly missed hitting Tsar Nicholas II after it was fired from a cannon in 1905 in St Petersburg, it [...]
Peter Turchin, a professor of ecology and mathematics at the University of Connecticut, is pioneering research in a field he calls cliodynamics. In short, cliodynamics uses mathematics to analyze social and cultural patterns throughout history. Turchin uses his research to chart violence and unrest, and believes he has identified [...]
Several serious problems in China could trigger a major crisis, potentially igniting either a domestic revolution or foreign war. Cheng Li wrote this memorandum to President Obama as part of Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book.
What challenges [...]
In a note to clients today, Societe Generale’s cross-asset strategists warn that given the high rates of youth unemployment, euro-area governments still face very real threats to stability:
Social unrest still a concern…
Economic crisis in developed countries have reinforced unemployment, especially with the youth. In 2013 southern economies plagued with large [...]
For close to three years, the primary focus of European leaders has been to solve the region’s banking and sovereign debt crisis, which have caused a serious weakening of the economy and created massive unemployment in some countries. The same leaders however faces a larger problem in 2013: how to manage the social unrest across [...]
In many of these situations the quantitative analysis is already done. It’s just a question of when will this unravel and how will it unravel, which I think is the key when we’re thinking about the chronology of events and the likelihood of events going forward.
Something that I think is really important to [...]
They own private companies and manage state corporations, with properties abroad or offshore. The descendants of the Party’s founders are China’s new ‘red aristocracy’ and have created one of the most unjust societies in the world with the gap between haves and have-nots reaching a danger level. At least 500 episodes of social unrest occur [...]
I see two major trajectories ahead, expressed as the Prowling Bear Future and the Russian Chess Master Future.
The Prowling Bear Future will see Russia establish itself as an authoritarian and corrupt petro-state at the heart of Eurasia, increasingly destabilising vulnerable European economies with its belligerent monopoly of the oil and gas market on the [...]