1913 Intel

International Conflict, Western World Threats and Geopolitical Intelligence

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Big Problems in Russia Starting in 2009

Posted by Matt in December 3rd, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Economy, Russia, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Experts see a very serious possibility of an abrupt collapse of the living standard and economic disintegration leading to social unrest, eventually followed by political upheaval.

As Tayevsky put it, “There will not be a crisis in Russia. There will be something immeasurably worse. But decent words for what it will be have not yet been [...]

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China Fears Restive Migrants As Jobs Disappear in Cities

Posted by Matt in December 2nd, 2008 | no comment 
Published in China, general, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fast-rising unemployment has led to an unusual series of strikes and protests. Normally cautious government officials have offered quick concessions and talk openly of their worries about social unrest. Laid-off factory workers in Dongguan overturned patrol cars and clashed with police last Tuesday, and hundreds of taxis parked in front of a government office in [...]

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China’s Economy Is on Track to Surpass the U.S. by 2035

Posted by Matt in July 8th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in China, Economy, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A new study assesses both commercial and potential military implications
Keidel forecasts that China’s economy will double by midcentury, fueled by domestic demand, not exports. Potential stumbling blocks to sustained Chinese growth—export concerns, domestic economic instability, inequality and poverty, pollution, social unrest, or even corruption and slow political reform—are unlikely to undermine China’s long-term success, according [...]

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Stratfor Intelligence Guidance: Week of June 1, 2008

Posted by Matt in May 30th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Asia, Energy, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Asia in general, and China in particular: The pressure in Asia is starting to show, beginning with South Korea. But anecdotal reports out of China also show the ratcheting of pressure. We have reports of plant closures due partly to informal taxes for earthquake relief imposed by the government and partly to the business environment. [...]

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The coming crisis

Posted by Matt in May 5th, 2008 | no comment 
Published in Oil, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

But at the same time, the economies of China and India have continued growing, which accelerates the consumption of petroleum-related products and increases the amount and quality of food each person eats. These three facts have conspired to produce a global shortage of crude oil which has exacerbated the world’s inability to feed itself. If [...]

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