This time Kim Jong-Il may not be bluffingIn an alarming analysis in an official Chinese publication, a senior advisor to the Chinese government expects North Korea to launch a war on the South in the belief that it has overwhelming military superiority.Zhang Lianggui, a professor of International Strategy at the Central Communist Party School in Beijing, also write that he regards its nuclear program as posing a danger the like of which China has never experienced in its history.Sponsored Ads
Kavakaz 2009 is Russia’s largest military exercise since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian military sources report that 8,500 troops will participate in it and the equipment that will be deployed includes 200 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, and 250 artillery pieces. Deployed in the Northern Caucasus, maneuvering near the Georgian border and involving Russian soldiers garisoned in Georgia from bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Kavkaz 2009 is described as an anti-terrorist exercise.
Analysts are actively debating the possible outcomes of an armed conflict between Georgia and the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia, which seceded from Georgia in 1992.
Without looking into the most pessimistic scenarios envisioning a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO, let’s try to predict the possible outcomes of a Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.
In late 2007 the Georgian armed forces had about 33,000 officers and men, including a 22,000-strong army that comprised five brigades and eight detached battalions.
Defense analysts for the British intelligence service MI6 believe China is preparing for the “eventuality of a nuclear war.” The conclusion follows evidence that Beijing has built secretly a major naval base deep inside caverns which even sophisticated satellites cannot penetrate, says a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
In an unusual development, the analysts have provided details to the specialist defense periodical, Jane’s Intelligence Review, which published satellite images of the base location which is hidden beneath millions of tons of rock on the South China Sea island of Hainan.
The number of oil-producer-based conflicts is likely to grow in the future as stratospheric prices of crude oil push more countries in the developing world to produce oil and gas. In 2001, the Bush administration’s energy task force hailed the emergence of new producers as a chance for the United States to diversify the sources of its energy imports and reduce its reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf. More than a dozen countries in Africa, the Caspian basin, and Southeast Asia have recently become, or will soon become, significant oil and gas exporters. Some of these countries, including Chad, East Timor, and Myanmar, have already suffered internal strife. Most of the rest are poor, undemocratic, and badly governed, which means that they are likely to experience violence as well. On top of that, record oil prices will yield the kind of economic windfalls that typically produce further unrest.
Summary: The world has grown much more peaceful over the past 15 years — except for oil-rich countries. Oil wealth often wreaks havoc on a country’s economy and politics, helps fund insurgents, and aggravates ethnic grievances. And with oil ever more in demand, the problems it spawns are likely to spread further.
Russia’s deployment of extra troops in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has brought the prospect of war “very close,” a minister of ex-Soviet Georgia said on Tuesday.
A dissident Chechen military commander said on Saturday amnestied rebels recruited by Chechnya’s pro-Kremlin leader Ramzan Kadyrov were engaged in violence and stood ready for another war with Russia.
Sulim Yamadayev, in an interview with Echo Moskvy radio station, described a situation in Chechnya at odds with Kremlin claims that it has re-established control there. Russia fought Chechen rebels in two wars since 1994 which killed thousands.
“You think there is order here? This amnestied army goes around with weapons. They do not have to hide and run… They have everything. They are just waiting,” said Yamadayev.
Sensitive intelligence reports obtained by the U.S. over the past several months indicated that military commanders in China thought they had authority to use military forces without first seeking permission from Beijing’s leaders, the officials said.
The reports indicated the specific issue for China’s military was Taiwan’s March 22 nationwide referendum on whether to seek membership in the United Nations under the name Taiwan, rather than the current Republic of China. The measure failed to gain a majority of voters.
Indecision is the path to war. The world is about to repeat errors that led to WWII: talking peace while a dictator prepares for war.
Iran’s President again showed his contempt for the UN by announcing Iran is installing 6,000 more centrifuges that spin at thousands of revolutions per minute. Ahmadinejad fails to say if they are the second generation P-2s or the older P-1s centrifuges. The type doesn’t matter, Iran is on its way to establishing a production line for fissile material—the fuel for nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei conducts an endless series of meetings with Iran’s Atomic Energy Commission, while “editing” the reports of his scientists. Isn’t it wonderful to have a lawyer as the head of the United Nation’s Atomic Energy Administration? He wouldn’t know a neutron if he met one, but he sure could justify its right to exist. Under intense pressure, ElBaradei requested a meeting to provide answers about Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. Iran responded by canceling ElBaradei’s meeting with Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear program.
On April 14th, NewsMax’s Jim Meyers reported that a credible source predicted that the U.S. will strike Iran. If the U.S. doesn’t, Israel will have to.
There are several key nuclear targets in Iran.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for Bush to attack. I think it’s a long shot.
Even though it looks relatively peaceful on the outside, Northeast Asia is in fact the heart of the global military-industrial complex. The armies that confront each other in this region — the United States, Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas — are the largest in the world. They are responsible for at least 65 percent of the world’s military spending.
Not only is Northeast Asia one of the most heavily militarised regions of the world, it is currently in the middle of a major arms race. Five of the six countries in the negotiations to shut down North Korea’s nuclear programme have increased their military spending by 50 percent or more in the last five years.