The world today is in many ways similar to the pre-1914 world of yesterday. There are many economic, military and power similarities, but it’s really about world instabilities. Increased economic and power instabilities create the conditions for a major war.
Economic instabilities can be created by both rapidly increasing or decreasing economies. Power instabilities tend to occur when a primary world power is in decline.
In order for a major nuclear war to occur, we need to understand the overall conditions required. This is why understanding the conditions of pre-war 1914 are so important. Today we find those same conditions. I cover this in part I.
Part II briefly explains how individual countries found themselves in the middle of World war I.
Part III explains how war in the Middle East will probably act as the new Serbia. The rest of this website monitors articles on a daily basis that show the world slowly positioning itself for war. You can see this concerning Israel and it’s neighbors, and you can see this concerning America, Russia and China. I invite you to sign up for my free newsletter so you won’t miss a thing.
Part I - World Instabilities
Conditions Required to Start World war I, and How They are Present Today:
1. Imperial overstretch
Just as Britain was overstretched in 1914, isn’t America overstretched today?
The United States refuses to call itself an empire, but nevertheless, it is an empire. And it is overstretched empire. Deficits are projected as far as the eye can see. A looming Social Security and Medicare crisis threatens to swell our deficits even more. Troops commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq are keeping the U.S. military busy.
The U.S. is just not in a position to respond to all the world threats today. For example, Iran is an emerging world threat. It is enriching Uranium and building solid-fuel, multi-stage scalable rockets. This combination can be used to threaten the existence of Europe in the next 20 years. But the U.S. is not in a position to stop Iran.
2. Great-power rivalry
Due to alliances the world shifted to a Cold war model where two sides were confronting one another. Isn’t it true that Russia, China and Iran (the SCO) are against America, Britain, Japan and Israel?
The cold war has returned between the U.S. and Russia even if it’s denied by both parties. Russia’s aggressive stance against the U.S. cannot be ignored, yet it is. Look at the enemies of the U.S and you will find Russia and/or China behind them.
A top Russian general recently mentioned that Russia could use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike against other nations if they or their allies feel threatened.
Two Chinese generals have casually informed the U.S. that they will use nuclear weapons concerning Taiwan if the U.S. interferes. The fact that we may wipe out 750 Million Chinese citizens doesn’t seem to bother them.
China is aggressively expanding its military, and it’s hiding its intensions. It’s cranking diesel submarines much faster than the U.S. can keep up. It’s upgrading its ballastic, nuclear missiles each year.
As for Europe, one must not underestimate the extent to which the recent diplomatic widening of the Atlantic reflects profound changes in Europe, rather than an alteration in U.S. foreign policy.
3. Unstable alliances
Many European nations are becoming anti-American. NATO’s purpose is no longer clear. Is it just an irrelevant club for the winners of the Cold War, which former Soviet satellites are encouraged to join for primarily symbolic reasons? Have divisions over Iraq rendered it obsolete? To say the least, coalitions of the willing are a poor substitute.
4. Rogue regimes
None of these problems would necessarily be fatal were it not for the fourth and fifth parallels between 1914 and today: the existence of rogue regimes sponsoring terror Iran and Syria top the list and of revolutionary terrorist organizations.
Serbia was an unstable area in 1914, and it was constantly causing problems. There are three key areas of instability today: The Middle East, China -Taiwan and Pakistan-India. Problems in these areas could lead to nuclear war.
5. Terrorist organizations.
It is a big mistake to think of al Qaeda as Islamo-fascist (as the journalist Christopher Hitchens and many others called the group after the September 11, 2001, attacks). Al Qaeda’s members are much more like Islamo-Bolshevists, committed to revolution and a reordering of the world along anti-capitalist lines.
Like the Bolsheviks in 1914, these Islamist extremists are part of an underground sect, struggling to land more than the occasional big punch on the enemy. But what if they were to get control of a wealthy state? Look at Iran. Soon it will have nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. What is going to happen in Pakistan is Islamist extremists gains control of their government and the cruise missiles with nuclear warheads?
In conclusion, with two sides facing off against each other, a relatively minor event can explode into a full-blown nuclear war. The minor event will most likely include terror supporting countries like Iran or Syria, and/or terrorist groups like Al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Where do we see Iran, Syria, Al Qaeda, Hezoballah and Hamas today? Aren’t these groups surrounding Israel in one way or another? This is where we should look.
Check out this article titled Russia’s Nuclear Threat. Here we learn that Russia’s policy is that it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons preemptively to protect itself and its allies (watch video.) Fair enough, but which countries are its allies? For starters, Syria is one of its allies.
Is Syria an ally of Russia? Check out this article: Russia to defend its principal Middle East ally: Moscow takes Syria under its protection.
What would be Russia’s reaction if at some point in the future Israel destroys Syria with nuclear weapons? Israel just might use nuclear weapons against Syria if it uses chemical weapons against Israeli cities. This article discusses just how close Israel is to a Syrian chemical weapon attack. Although, the article doesn’t forecast Israel’s use of nuclear weapons against this type of attack.
Here’s another article discussing the next Israeli war with its neighbors: Iranian, Syrian missiles to pound Israel in next war. This is all very scary.
Israel readies largest exercise ever to prepare for Iran-Syria missile war
Changing nuclear equation
“Should nuclear arms be used in response to powerful conventional attacks?”
“According to the equation accepted by the world, it’s legitimate to use conventional weapons in response to a conventional attack, and similarly, non-conventional (nuclear, chemical, or biological) weapons in response to a non-conventional attack.”
“Six decades after the first and only use of nuclear weapons so far (since then, Egypt and Iraq made limited use of chemical weapons) the time has come to check whether this equation is still relevant. In my view, Israel should regain its deterrent power by threatening a nuclear reaction in response to a conventional attack of similar magnitude.”
Read more from this article at YnetNews.Com.
Should the above scenario unfold, then I argue that nuclear relaliation against America will be forthcoming within a few years. Probably within two or three years, but possibly four years later.
Another interesting article argues that America will be able to destroy Russian strategic nuclear forces some time after 2012-2015. Russian nuclear forces are degrading faster than they can be upgraded, so that’s making Russia a little nervous about U.S. power. That may give Russia just one more reason to strike while they still can, given a good reason like Israel’s first use of nuclear weapons.
If you want to see what nuclear war looks like then check out this YouTube film clip from the movie, “The Day After”. Warning: This is not for the faint hearted.
Read this article: China prepares for nuclear war.
Economic Parallels:
1. Globalization and low inflation are both conditions similar to pre-war 1914.
From a recent article in the U.S. News & World Report called “Heard the Good News?”:
“The present era of globalization and low inflation has an important precedent: 1880-1914, the era of the classical gold standard,” it says.
2. There was mostly free-trade in 1914 with some signs of protectionism.
3. The international monetary system is no more stable today than that before World war I, and probably less so. None of the major currencies is pegged to gold.
4. The U.S. economy was the world’s biggest and still is. But it’s different this time: the U.S. has a huge deficit. Today, the U.S. absorbs about three-quarters of the rest of the world’s surplus savings. This just adds one more instability to the world environment.
5. The containment of “contagion” is remarkably similar today to what it was in pre-1914 globalization. Contagion is the international transmission of crises. With extensive trade dependancies in unstable regions of the world, a major crisis in one part of the world can easily be transmitted to another part of the world.
Part II - Understanding World war I
Some background information about why World war I started:
World war I occurred because of instabilities in the world and the fact that the world was divided into two major opposing forces.
The main interest of states were the accumulation of wealth and preventing any other power from becoming dominant. Due to alliances the world shifted to a Cold war model where two sides were confronting one another. At his point a minor confrontation could quickly escalate into a major war.
After the Napoleonic wars of the Early 1800s, European politics focused on a Balance of Power, in which all states were out for themselves, without permanent alliances, their main interests being the accumulation of wealth, and preventing any other power from becoming dominant in Europe. Then, around 1900, Europe shifted from a Balance of Power model to a Cold war model, with alliances solidifying, increased spending on armaments by all, and a view that there would be a 2-sided confrontation. In a 2-sided confrontation, any dispute was seen as a test of wills between the two sides, as opposed to a minor issue to be resolved as quickly and painlessly as possible.
Austria-Hungary’s Path to War
Austria-Hungary’s reaction to the death of their heir (who was not exactly loved) took about three weeks. Arguing that the Serbian government was implicated in the assassination, the Austro-Hungarians opted to take the opportunity to stamp its authority upon the Serbians, crushing the nationalist movement there and cementing Austria-Hungary’s influence in the Balkans.
Germany’s Path to War
As for Germany, she was unsettled socially and militarily. The 1912 Reichstag elections had resulted in the election of no fewer than 110 socialist deputies, making Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg’s task in liaising between the Reichstag and the autocratic Wilhelm, not to mention the rigidly right-wing military high command, next to impossible.
Bethmann Hollweg, who became most despondent, came to believe that Germany’s only hope of avoiding civil unrest sooner rather than later lay in war: preferably a short, sharp war, although he did not rule out a European-wide conflict if it resolved Germany’s social and political woes.
Russia’s Path to War
Russia, the protector of the Slavs, was allied with Serbia. To not protect Serbia would have caused Russia to lose face. So Russia had no choice but to mobilize for war once Austria-Hungary declared war.
Part III - The New Serbia [Possible war Scenario]
Which country or region in the world is going to act as the new Serbia and set off World war III? And how is the war going to start?
There are two key areas in the world that are the most likely to draw in the major players:
As of May 22, 2007, the war with Israel and its neighbors is the most troublesome. The air of invincibility has worn away from Israel. It’s neighbors are starting to smell blood. Syria is preparing for war, as is Hezbollah and Hamas.
The problem for Israel could come in a few years where it will be literally raining down missiles all over Israel. Next let’s add in some missiles from Syria that contain chemical warheads, and you get the picture. Start thinking about the Samson option where Israel defeats its enemies with nuclear weapons.
How would the world react if Israel destroys Damascus and Hezbollah with nuclear weapons? Perhaps even Hamas won’t be spared with a small tactical nuclear weapon.
This type of war will actually destroy all of Israel’s enemies, but what will Iran, the Arab countries, the SCO, Russia and China do? One can just imagine the world outrage over Israel’s actions. Then there will be calm.
The world will get over Israel’s outrage, or will they? Quietly, the SCO starts preparing for war. Russia and China prepare their massive underground bunker systems with food and water. Russia and China work very hard to upgrade their weapon systems.
One year goes by and nothing happens.
One and a half years go by and nothing happens.
Then it hits out of the blue. About two years later, for no apparent reason, Russia and China attack America, Britain and Japan early one Monday morning at the beginning of Spring. It will be over in a matter of hours, and this time America loses.
The actual timing of the attack could occur as much as five years after Israel’s nuclear attack. I do not anticipate an attack during the first year. Mostly likely an attack would occur two or three years later.
Spring is the most likely season for an attack. This gives the most time available before the onset of Winter. Additionally, early Monday morning is the most likely time for an attack. Sunday morning at the same time is a good second option. This gives the Russians and Chinese one or two days to finish hiding all of their leaders.
Monday might be advantageous for an attack because Russian and Chinese will be at work, while the Americans will be asleep. Most leaders will go into hiding by Sunday evening.
Both Russia and China have parades at the beginning of May which could involve the military. So this period might create some cover for military movement.
Overall, the best time for war is in the Spring, probably some time around the beginning of May. The actual day of attack will probably take place on a Monday or Sunday morning. The best time for an attack would be when most of America is asleep, but the citizens of Russia and China are at work.
What about Taiwan? Couldn’t America get entanged in a great war over Taiwan? The answer is yes, but the current probably is much lower than with a conflict concerning Israel.
Part of this article is based on an article by Niall Ferguson called Sinking Globalization . Niall a is Professor of History at Harvard University, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, University of Oxford.
This website is written and produced by Matt Wilson.
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